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Statgeekery

Statsy type stuff.

Stats showcase Liberty's victory

The New York Liberty won a hard fought game against the Los Angeles Sparks. Their were certain stats that really explained why the Liberty were victorious -- and had Bill Laimbeer happy.

Using the 4 Factors to analyze D.C.'s preseason

The Washington Mystics went 2-1 in the 2015 preseason and were very close to going undefeated. We take a look at how this could translate to the regular season.

How does the USA rank vs. the other FIBA teams?

Is there a way to measure how strong Team USA is going into the 2014 Fiba Women's World Championship? Using historical data over the last four years, we construct an Elo rating system for national teams.

Are the 2014 Mercury the best ever?

How does the 2014 Mercury compare to the other great teams in WNBA history? Was the 2014 season competitive or non-competitive? We blow some dust off our math books and take a look at the numbers.

2013 WNBA Player Efficiency Ratings (PER)

Here are the 2013 WNBA Player Efficiency Ratings, or PER. PER was created by basketball statistician John Hollinger, as a metric that attempts to combine all of a player's contributions on the court into a single value.

Mystics Magic: Washington supreme in close games

Looking at games decided by five points or less in the 2013 season, Washington stands out among the crowd.

WNBA power rankings: Lynx, Sparks atop league

In this week's weekly statistical look around the league, we look at efficiency differentials and the early pecking order in the league.

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Should the WNBA start using effective FG%?

Despite the 3-point shot being used at all levels for over two and a half decades, the WNBA (and NBA) still use the FG% statistic which counts 2 point & 3 point shots equally. To rectify this, the league should use effective field goal percentage.

WNBA point guard prospects: 2001-2013

A sampling of WNBA point guard prospects from 2001-2013.

2013 WNBA preview primer

Over the past few years I've laid out a framework of statistics that I plan to use for team-by-team previews of the WNBA season. There will be a few tweaks in how I've conceptualized things this year so here's a primer for your reference.

What makes a successful mid-major draft prospect?

The past five years have been cruel to mid-major women's basketball players trying to make the WNBA. So we wonder, what makes a successful mid-major WNBA draft prospect?

Pac-12 preview statistics framework

Each year before conference play begins, I like to take stock of where each team stands statistically so I'm ready for what's ahead. In advance of sharing all those numbers, the following is just a primer for what all those statistics are.

What makes for a successful WNBA Draft prospect?

With James Bowman taking a look at the top women's college basketball programs this week, I'm going to start officially looking ahead to the 2013 WNBA Draft for the remainder of the week.

Top 100 Programs in DI women's BB: #26-40

Swish Appeal's list of the top programs in Division I women's basketball teams #26-40 is revealed with a look at schedule-making and the RPI.

Efficiency In The World Of Basketball As 'Effective Damage Per Second' In World Of Warcraft

Friday Night Open Thread: Predictions For Tonight's Five Games With NSR's Simulator

A Statistical Framework For Team Building

Updated on 5/22/13.

WNBA Rookie Similarity Ratings: Style Vs. Quality

Over the weekend I posted a look at each team's training camp rosters by SPI player styles as a framework for getting a sense of how both Eastern and Western Conference teams are structured and what their potential needs are. Part of that process involved making WNBA style projections for rookies coming from NCAA basketball based on college statistics.

How much does a win in women's college basketball cost?

As anyone who follows women's basketball for even a little while knows, big budgets do not necessarily lead to big wins. This leads to calculating something called the marginal cost per marginal win (MC/MW) as a means of evaluating decision-making.

Purity, Truth, and WNBA Point Guards

Los Angeles Sparks veteran Ticha Penicheiro has been a model of point guard "purity" during her career, but we can probably forgive Seattle Storm point guard Sue Bird for her more "impure" tendencies.

Who are the best 'shot creators' in the WNBA?

Neither Los Angeles Sparks point guard Ticha Penicheiro nor Phoenix Mercury point guard Temeka Johnson are likely to spring to mind when people think of the WNBA's best shot creators, but their "creation ratios" suggest that they're among the best in the league.

The Subtle Value Of Great Point Guards: Why Potential Assists Matter

For all the emphasis on scoring points, being able to perform that function of a ball handler well has value that is easily overlooked. So just how valuable are point guards?

Ranking the Lynx, Part II

As someone who never got a chance to see the great teams of the Houston Comets or the Minnesota Lynx, I've always been interested in which teams in the WNBA were the best ever. My favorite method - every stathead had his favorite metric - is the Noll-Scully Measure.

Plus-Minus: A Primer & The Value Of Four-Year WNBA Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)

There are two forms of plus/minus currently publicly available to WNBA fans: the type that shows up in the boxscore and "net plus/minus" often used for to evaluate player seasons. Here we introduce a third: Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM).

Pre-game at the Rock: The Formula For 'Possessions'

A look at the concept of "possessions" vs. "plays".

Swish Appeal Statistics Glossary

A list of some of the statistics we use most often for reference.

Statistical Summary for Seattle's best: Where team synergy is sweeter than revenge

As fulfilling as it was to watch the Storm avenge their first loss of the season in Chicago, it was even sweeter as a fan of the game to watch a quarter in which a team executed an offense so well. After the game, Storm coach Brian Agler commented on the team's ball movement, noting that they finished the game with 24 assists, partially a result of the Sky's defensive strategy.

Updated Rookie Ranking Framework

Fun With Age Curves

It would be a great thing if we knew how much "future value" a player had. This is why being a GM is hard; ofttimes you find yourself on the wrong side of history. Age curves and other predictive metrics are attempts to get on the "right side" of history.

Early season analysis: How are WNBA teams approaching the process of "forming chemistry"?

Normally at this time of the week I would write about rookie rankings or do an analysis of which teams are hot and not. However, with most teams still coming together in very significant ways any assertions about a league pecking order right now after 2 to 4 games would be almost entirely arbitrary. So how are teams trying to come together?

Team Factors and Possessions: Describing a Team’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Having looked at the style and value of a team’s performance, today I’m going to move on to describing the substance of a team’s strengths and weaknesses that contribute to success (or failure). Once a team’s strengths and weaknesses are established, it’s also possible to look at each individual’s contribution to those strengths and weaknesses.

Describing Team Styles

Returning to the UConn’s big victory over Stanford, rhythm and synergy played a major role in flow of the game, if we believe that the words of commentators, coaches, and players were more than empty rhetoric. The question is how to measure those nebulous concepts in a way that represents what one might observe.

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