A 2014 what-if: What if every WNBA player still played for her original team?

A long time ago - this was the beginning of the age of computers, when the personal computer meant the Apple IIe or some IBM Desktop Clone - I was a big fan of sports newspapers, the internet of their day.

In particular, I was a fan of baseball and one writer too advantage of the first sports simulation programs to create a baseball league where no one was ever traded.  Each player in baseball that time was assigned to the team where he started.

I wondered what the result would be in the WNBA if every player this season had remained on the team where they started.  Hammonova returns to New York!  De Souza is on the Sparks!  Charles hikes her way back to Connecticut!  What would be the best teams out there, and what would be the worst?

I decided to use Win Shares as projected by basketball-reference.com for the 2014 WNBA season.  The positions listed below for players come from either their listed position on a WNBA roster, or in the case of guards a lot of guesswork as to whether the player is truly a two-guard, a point guard, or some combo guard.  So don't be too harsh if I get it wrong!

Of course, it could never be perfectly straightforward.  After the reassignment of all players to their starting teams, some teams end up with fewer than 11 players and some end up with more than 12 players.  In counting a team's estimated wins, I will only count their 12 best players and "cut" all of those falling short.  For teams of 10 players or less, they'll just have to make due with the misfortune of a reduced roster.

We also have the cases where a player's first team is one that doesn't exist anymore, like Charlotte or Sacramento.  In which case, the players starting team is the first place they ended up that still has an active team.  Where players have started with defunct teams, the team will be noted in parentheses.  In the case of the Tulsa Shock, players that started on the Detroit Shock will end up in Tulsa.

So let's look at the teams from worst to best.

LOTTERY BOUND

		Seattle				Current Team			Win Shares
SEA		Hawkins		F		Washington			1.1
SEA		Stricklen		F/F		Seattle			1.1
SEA		Clark		F		Seattle			0.7
SEA		Wright		G/PG		Seattle			0.7
SEA		K. Thomas		C		Indiana			0.4
SEA		Rolle		C		Seattle			0.3
SEA		Bird		PG		Seattle			0.2
SEA		Robinson		F		Seattle			0.2
SEA		Kobryn		C		Phoenix			0.0
									4.7

Egad.  With every player going back to her starting team, Seattle is not only the worst team in the league, but even if Lauren Jackson were on this roster it would still be pretty bad.  Sue Bird will be 34 1/2 when next year starts and her true shooting percentage (which counts 3-pointers and free throws) was the worst it has ever been in her career.  You can tell that Seattle has a problem when you note that six of the players on this nine-player roster are still with the Storm.

		Indiana				Current Team			Win Shares
IND		Catchings		F		Indiana			2.2
IND		January		PG		Indiana			1.5
IND		Goodlett		C		Chicago			0.7
IND		Lucas		G		Indiana			0.7
IND		White		G		Minnesota			0.7
IND		Howard		F		Indiana			0.5
IND		Clarendon		PG		Indiana			0.1
IND		Hassell		F		Indiana			0.0
IND		Hoffman		F		Indiana			-0.1
									6.3

Indiana would be the worst team in the Eastern Conference but there are some difference between the situation of the Fever and the Storm.  Unlike Seattle, the real world Indiana is a title contender.  Why?  Because Indiana has been very smart in acquiring its pieces from other teams like Erlana Larkins, Karima Christmas and Shavonte Zellous.  Even Catchings's paltry Win Shares of 2.2 reflects injury more than a decline in ability.

		San Antonio				Current Team			Win Shares
SAS		Robinson		PG		San Antonio			2.7
SAS		Young		F		San Antonio			2.2
SAS		Appel		C		San Antonio			2.0
SAS		McBride		G/F		San Antonio			2.0
SAS		Little		F		Seattle			1.7
SAS		Adams		F/C		San Antonio			1.5
SAS		S. Johnson		G/PG		San Antonio			0.8
SAS		Alexander		C		San Antonio			0.2
SAS		Ndour		C		San Antonio			-0.1
SAS		Whyte*		PG		San Antonio			-0.1
SAS		Butler*		PG		San Antonio			-0.1
									12.8

This is just the current San Antonio team without Becky Hammon and Jia Perkins, who both got their starts with other teams.  (By the way - did you know that Becky Hammon was undrafted?) Adding Camille Little back doesn't help.

		Washington				Current Team			Win Shares
WAS		Meesseman		C		Washington			4.3
WAS		Langhorne		F/C		Seattle			3.0
WAS		Christmas		G/F		Indiana			2.1
WAS		Dolson		C		Washington			1.2
WAS		Beard		G/F		Los Angeles			1.1
WAS		Coleman		G/F		Indiana			1.0
WAS		Ruffin-Pratt		G/PG		Washington			1.0
WAS		Hartley		PG		Washington			0.6
WAS		T. Johnson		PG		Seattle			0.2
WAS		Milovanovich		F		Washington			0.1
WAS		McKenith		G/PG		Minnesota			0.0
WAS		J. Thomas		PG		Atlanta			0.0
WAS		Hill		G	cut	Washington			-0.1
WAS		Ajavon		G	cut	Atlanta (Houston)			-0.3
									14.6

Albert Lee will be unhappy to learn that Washington barely misses the playoffs in this universe, but like the current Mystics this team has a lot of potential.   It makes one wonder how good the team could have been if it had stuck with Julie Plank and Angela Taylor running things.

PLAYOFF BOUND

		New York				Current Team			Win Shares
NYL		Larkins		F		Indiana			4.9
NYL		McCarville		C		Minnesota (Charlotte)			2.4
NYL		Vaughn		C		Washington			1.9
NYL		Breland		F		Chicago			1.5
NYL		Cruz		PG		New York			1.5
NYL		Hammon		PG		San Antonio			1.4
NYL		A. Montgomery		G/F		New York			1.1
NYL		Bone		F/C		Connecticut			1.0
NYL		Christon		F		San Antonio			0.3
NYL		McKinney		F/C		New York			0.3
NYL		Greene		G		Washington			0.2
NYL		Jeffery		PG		New York			0.1
NYL		To. Young		G	cut	New York			0.1
NYL		Cain		C	cut	Connecticut			0.0
NYL		T. Jackson		F	cut	Tulsa			0.0
NYL		Powell		F	cut	Seattle (Charlotte, Sacramento)			0.0
NYL		Carson		G/F	cut	New York			-0.3
									16.6

The Liberty have so many ex-players rolling around the league that they have the luxury of cutting the fat from the roster.  I suspect that Bill Laimbeer would like this roster better than than the one he has now.  Most of the top players on this version of the Liberty no longer get to shake hands with Maddie or hear the cheers of fans from MSG.

		Tulsa				Current Team			Win Shares
TUL		Diggins		PG		Tulsa			3.9
TUL		Latta		PG		Washington			3.3
TUL		Sims		G/PG		Tulsa			2.9
TUL		G. Johnson		F		Tulsa			2.5
TUL		Zellous		G		Indiana			2.0
TUL		Baugh		F		Tulsa			0.9
TUL		N. Lacy		PG		New York			0.3
TUL		Thompson		F		Atlanta			0.3
TUL		Hooper		F		Tulsa			0.2
TUL		Pedersen		F		Connecticut			0.2
TUL		R. Williams		G		Tulsa			0.2
TUL		Braxton		F/C		New York			0.0
TUL		Kizer		F	cut	Indiana			0.0
TUL		Plaisance		F	cut	Tulsa			-0.1
TUL		Goodrich		PG	cut	Tulsa			-0.3
TUL		Cash		F	cut	New York			-0.5
									16.7

Do you know what's so scary about this team?  That a lot of players on it are very young.  Tulsa has been very bad for a while but has made the most of it and have  a core that can contend for the playoffs even if they can't keep them all in Tulsa.

		Los Angeles				Current Team			Win Shares
LAS		Parker		F/C		Los Angeles			5.0
LAS		de Souza		C		Atlanta			4.9
LAS		N. Ogwumike		F		Los Angeles			4.7
LAS		Lavender		C		Los Angeles			2.6
LAS		O'Hea		G		Seattle			0.8
LAS		Abdi		F		Los Angeles			0.0
LAS		Milton-Jones		F		Atlanta			0.0
LAS		Morris		PG		Los Angeles			-0.1
LAS		Greene		G		Los Angeles			-0.2
									17.7

Not a lot of talent left in the WNBA that had its origin in Los Angeles.  This is fitting.  Los Angeles has usually been a destination for WNBA players, and not an origin.  This is an interesting team, but what are you going to do for the guard positions?  I guess we'll see if Candace Parker really can play five positions.

		Connecticut				Current Team			Win Shares
CON		C. Ogwumike		F		Connecticut			4.7
CON		Whalen		PG		Minnesota			4.3
CON		Charles		C		New York			4.2
CON		A. Thomas		F		Connecticut			2.2
CON		Douglas		G/F		Connecticut/Orlando			1.8
CON		Phillips		PG		Phoenix			1.8
CON		Griffin		F		Connecticut			1.3
CON		Lawson		G/PG		Washington (Sacramento)			1.3
CON		Hightower		G		Connecticut			0.7
CON		Faris		G		Connecticut			0.0
CON		Jekabsone-Zogota		G		Phoenix			-0.3
CON		Gruda		C		Los Angeles			-0.4
CON		McCray		G/F	cut	Connecticut			-0.9
									21.6

This version of the Sun would be no one's lottery team!  Note that Katie Douglas is back home, but before she was in Connecticut she started out with the Orlando Miracle which was later relocated to Mohegan.  Could this team have beaten the 2014 Atlanta Dream of our universe?

CONFERENCE CONTENDERS

		Minnesota				Current Team			Win Shares
MIN		M. Moore		F		Minnesota			8.1
MIN		Augustus		G		Minnesota			2.2
MIN		Dantas		F		Minnesota			2.2
MIN		Murphy		G		Phoenix			1.4
MIN		Peters		F		Minnesota			1.1
MIN		R. Montgomery		PG		Connecticut			0.9
MIN		Brunson		F		Minnesota (Sacramento)			0.7
MIN		Quinn		PG		Seattle			0.7
MIN		Rodgers		G/PG		New York			0.6
MIN		Liston		G		Minnesota			0.5
MIN		Wright		G/PG		Minnesota			0.4
MIN		Hodges		G		Tulsa (Houston)			0.3
MIN		Houston		F	cut	New York			0.1
MIN		Taylor		F	cut	Minnesota			0.1
MIN		L. Moore		PG	cut	Minnesota			0.0
MIN		Harding		PG	cut	Los Angeles			-0.3
MIN		Wiggins		G	cut	Los Angeles			-0.3
									19.1

A conference contender for one reason.  They have Maya, and you don't.  Come to think of it, that describes the current 2014 real-world Minnesota Lynx!

		Atlanta		Position		Current Team			Win Shares
ATL		Hayes		G		Atlanta			4.8
ATL		Lyttle		F		Atlanta (Houston)			4.5
ATL		Paris		C		Tulsa (Sacramento)			3.8
ATL		McCoughtry		G/F		Atlanta			3.1
ATL		Bentley		PG		Connecticut			2.0
ATL		Henry		F/C		Atlanta			1.4
ATL		Ta. Young		F		Chicago			1.1
ATL		Schimmel		G/PG		Atlanta			0.7
ATL		Dumerc		PG		Atlanta			0.2
ATL		Colhado		C		Atlanta			0.2
ATL		Clements		G		Chicago			0.2
ATL		Orekhova		F		Atlanta			-0.1
									21.9

Would you rather have the real Atlanta Dream, or this version?  I like having Tamera Young as a defensive specialist, but I miss Erika in the post.

The FINALS

		Phoenix				Current Team			Win Shares
PHO		Griner		C		Phoenix			6.6
PHO		Taurasi		G/PG		Phoenix			5.4
PHO		Taylor		F		Phoenix (Cleveland)			4.0
PHO		Bonner		G/F		Phoenix			3.8
PHO		Pierson		F/C		New York			1.6
PHO		Quigley		G/PG		Chicago			1.4
PHO		Pondexter		G/PG		New York			1.1
PHO		Warley		C		New York			0.9
PHO		Gilbreath-Butler		G		Connecticut			0.1
PHO		Prahalis		PG		Los Angeles *			0.0
PHO		Bias		PG		Phoenix			-0.3
PHO		J. Lacy		F		Tulsa			-0.3
									24.3

That front four is as strong a front four as you'll ever see, with something for everyone, including fans of swinging Sammy P!

		Chicago				Current Team			Win Shares
CHI		Dupree		F		Phoenix			5.3
CHI		Currie		F		Washington			3.0
CHI		Prince		G/PG		Chicago			2.9
CHI		Delle Donne		G/F		Chicago			2.7
CHI		Toliver		PG		Los Angeles			2.5
CHI		Fowles		C		Chicago			2.4
CHI		Perkins		G/PG		San Antonio (Charlotte)			1.9
CHI		Mims		F		Phoenix			1.8
CHI		Herrington		G		Los Angeles			1.4
CHI		Gatling		C		Chicago			0.9
CHI		Vandersloot		PG		Chicago			0.3
CHI		Ellenberg		G		Chicago			0.0
CHI		Brandon		F	cut	Chicago			-0.1
CHI		Faulkner		PG	cut	Chicago			-0.3
CHI		Carter		PG	cut	Indiana			-0.8

Could that lineup win a championship, or is it just good on paper?  I'll leave that for you to decide.