Analyst Debbie Antonelli offered a pretty good breakdown of the top prospects on the Indiana Fever's website yesterday, but since people have asked me about a few specific players I'm going to offer a slightly different take on things using statistics as the basis for a set of tiers.
The tiers are based on a really low standard: the risk involved in drafting a player that might not make a roster, as follows:
Tier 1 - Elite: Instant impact players who with no major weaknesses that have kept players off a roster three years down the road
Tier 2 - Low-risk: A player with a number of strengths but a noticeable red flag compared to past propsects
Tier 3 - Fringe: A player with a strength but enough red flags to make their future outlook unclear
Tier 4 - Questionable: A player with a number of red flags and marginal strengths
Tier 5 - Risky: Players that have a number of red flags and no major statistical strengths
Again, the level of risk is based on making a roster generally based on past prospects not whether they might be able to find a fit with a particular roster based on need or style of play - for some players, there might be a situation or two that masks or negates their red flags. It also doesn't account for general managers' personal tastes. But what we're trying to find is players who have the least chance of failing to find a situation where they can contribute based on which players have succeeded in the past.
I'm trying to stay close to the numbers here so bear with me - there might even be players here that I like subjectively, but can't find support for statistically and vice versa.
- I wouldn't read too much into the ordering within tiers - a lot of that is subjective and it's much more difficult to sort out differences between positions within tiers.
- I didn't make any adjustments for injured players - their placement is based on their performance during the season.
- Astou Ndour - who could be a first round pick - is not listed here because I don't have a good way to compare international players to NCAA ones.
For more on the top WNBA prospects, check out our 2014 WNBA draft prospect watch storystream.