clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Non-chalk second round predictions for the 2013 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament

A look at games in the second round of the 2013 NCAA Tournament that might not go according to seed based on Massey predictions.


Going by the numbers, the second round doesn't appear to have much upset potential so we're not going to go through every game.

But if you consider five seeds advancing or teams winning at home to be upsets, there might be a few on the way. And another might be closer than some expect.

Is a five seed beating a four seed an upset?

The women's basketball Massey predictions have #5 Iowa State beating #4 Georgia and #5 Louisville beating #4 Purdue in the second round.

The Louisville one is especially predictable because the game is occurring in Louisville. Iowa State, on the other hand, might have some advantages without the benefit of a home court based on the Massey ratings, Sagarin predictor and National Sports Rankings' pre-tournament odds.

Team Massey % Sagarin Predictor NSR odds of advancing
#4 Georgia 29% 87.55 33.11%
#5 Iowa St. 71% 90.79 43.07%

Where might Iowa State have a statistical advantage? They're a more efficient scoring team while Georgia turns the ball over less. Typically in that situation the odds would favor the team that can score more efficiently by hitting threes and getting to the line.

As described prior to the tournament though, depth could become an issue for ISU.

Can home court advantage help Delaware get to the Sweet 16?

There isn't near the clarity on this one, but Massey has them taking it and Sagarin has it as a close matchup.

Team Massey % Sagarin Predictor NSR odds of advancing
#3 North Carolina
44% 87.88 49.96%
#6 Delaware
56% 86.93 34.91%

Delaware is playing at home, which has to be accounted for, but they struggled with West Virginia's quickness on the perimeter and North Carolina won't be any easier a matchup, as described prior to the tournament.

The numbers like #6 Oklahoma's chances against #3 UCLA

After watching UCLA dismantle Cal and then take Stanford down to the final few seconds, it would be understandable if you took a UCLA win for granted.

However, it might not be so clear cut.

Team Massey % Sagarin Predictor NSR odds of advancing
#3 UCLA 61% 86.75 41.92
#6 Oklahoma 39% 86.37 39

What favors Oklahoma here is their scoring efficiency: they have shot over 36% over the course of the season and complement that with speedster point guard Aaryn Ellenburg and a crew of hardworking bigs. UCLA's rebounding should help them get some second chance opportunities. But this one might come down to turnovers: neither team has a particularly large differential relative to opponents over the course of the season and while UCLA's athleticism can terrorize even the top teams in the nation, they can give away possessions at a high rate themselves.

Which one will this one go? It's hard to pick against UCLA as well as they've been playing, but Massey predicts a 71-67 final score and that pretty much reflects what slim margin of error the Bruins might have.

For more on the tournament, visit our NCAA section.