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New York Liberty responds with an 81-75 Victory: The Stat Analysis


     The focus here is on the stat breakdown and analysis. As useful as these tool are, there comes a time when the response to adversity and heart take over. These factors cannot be measured by calculator or spreadsheet but are vital to victory just the same. In the New York Liberty's 81-75 win over the San Antonio Silver Stars on Friday at the Rock we had a perfect scenario.  

     In warmups Essence Carson, one of the Liberty's key players and offensive threats, was hit in the eye with a ball. She was diagnosed with traumatic iritis and sat out the contest. Minus Carson, the Liberty took it on themselves to collectively step up. They rose to the challenge. As noted, heart and will cannot be measured but we will look at the things than can.

 

                                              Possessions                                         Offensive Efficiency

SA                                               77                                                                   97

NY                                               74                                                                   110

 

A solid defensive outing by the Liberty. San Antonio, on the other hand, gave up too much on the defensive end. What made this a close game? Turnovers. Of the Four Factors the TO rate stood out very much in the favor of the visiting Silver Stars.

                                         TO Rate

SA                                        7%

NY                                       19%

 

Liberty was just barely on the border of acceptable to non-acceptable turnover rate. San Antonio was outstanding. Thus we had a closer game than what the efficiencies hinted. The remaining Four Factors:

                                       eFG PCT

SA                                         39%

NY                                         55%

When the Liberty weren't losing the ball, they made shots.

                                        FT RATE

SA                                      21%

NY                                      32%

Again, in my calculations I look at FTM divided by FGA. Silver Stars were 16 of 20 and the Liberty 18 of 21 from the charity stripe.

                                         OREB PCT

SA                                         30%

NY                                         25%

Advantage San Antonio with a 14-7 edge in raw numbers on the offensive glass.

The leading scorers, two looks:

Cappie Pondexter paced the Liberty with 19 points while Danielle Adams of National Champion Texas A & M, came off the bench to lead San Antonio with 19. Let's look at their numbers from two perspectives. First, from the Manley or NBA efficiency model.

Pondexter    15

Adams          12

To review the Manley, or NBA, adds points, FGM, FTM, rebs, assists, blocks and steals while subtracting missed shots and turnovers.

Now we will look at Win Score. This metric was developed by David Berri who co-authored the outstanding 'Wages of Wins' (Stanford Business Books, 2007). Utilizing the Win Score our numbers still show Pondexter ahead but both figures are decidedly decreased.

Pondexter                       3.5

Adams                             1.5

To calculate Win Scores  you add points, rebounds, steals, 1/2 blocked shots and 1/2 assists. Subtracted are all field goal attempts, 1/2 personal fouls , 1/2 free throw attempts and turnovers. The numbers are consistently lower in Win Scores largely due to shooting. In Manley and the NBA you are rewarded 'twice' for making a shot. Not so in WS. Example. A player shoots 5 of 5 for 10 points and does nothing else. Here are the respective efficiencies.

Manley or NBA                   10

WS                                         5

Win Score will subtract the five FGA from the points while the Manley and NBA allows a 'break even' (5 FGM - 5 FGA= 0). Adams at 6 of 17 from the floor and Pondexter 7 for 15 had their Win Score performances notably affected in relation to the Manley and NBA. More next time with a closer look at some 'Wages of Wins' concepts.

Finally, an important stat to note, San Antonio is now 7-2 while the Liberty are 5-5.