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Statgeekery

What makes a successful mid-major draft prospect?

The past five years have been cruel to mid-major women's basketball players trying to make the WNBA. So we wonder, what makes a successful mid-major WNBA draft prospect?

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Pac-12 preview statistics framework

Each year before conference play begins, I like to take stock of where each team stands statistically so I'm ready for what's ahead. In advance of sharing all those numbers, the following is just a primer for what all those statistics are.

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What makes for a successful WNBA Draft prospect?

With James Bowman taking a look at the top women's college basketball programs this week, I'm going to start officially looking ahead to the 2013 WNBA Draft for the remainder of the week.

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Top 100 Programs in DI women's BB: #26-40

Swish Appeal's list of the top programs in Division I women's basketball teams #26-40 is revealed with a look at schedule-making and the RPI.

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Efficiency In The World Of Basketball As 'Effective Damage Per Second' In World Of Warcraft

For a number of analyses on WNBA awards, I've used a metric called Valuable Contributions Ratio (VCR) created by David Sparks. I've described why it's useful to measure the value of rookies and m...

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Friday Night Open Thread: Predictions For Tonight's Five Games With NSR's Simulator

With five games on the schedule tonight (all broadcast on WNBA LiveAccess), we'll have the standard links and schedule format for tonight's open thread. But Ed Bemiss of National Sports Rankings...

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A Statistical Framework For Team Building

After tying the mark for all-time women's professional basketball coaching wins after a win against the Chicago Sky on September 11, 2011, Seattle Storm coach and GM Brian Agler offered brief...

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WNBA Rookie Similarity Ratings: Style Vs. Quality

Over the weekend I posted a look at each team's training camp rosters by SPI player styles as a framework for getting a sense of how both Eastern and Western Conference teams are structured and what their potential needs are. Part of that process involved making WNBA style projections for rookies coming from NCAA basketball based on college statistics.

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How much does a win in women's college basketball cost?

As anyone who follows women's basketball for even a little while knows, big budgets do not necessarily lead to big wins. This leads to calculating something called the marginal cost per marginal win (MC/MW) as a means of evaluating decision-making.

Purity, Truth, and WNBA Point Guards

Los Angeles Sparks veteran Ticha Penicheiro has been a model of point guard "purity" during her career, but we can probably forgive Seattle Storm point guard Sue Bird for her more "impure" tendencies.

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Who are the best 'shot creators' in the WNBA?

Neither Los Angeles Sparks point guard Ticha Penicheiro nor Phoenix Mercury point guard Temeka Johnson are likely to spring to mind when people think of the WNBA's best shot creators, but their "creation ratios" suggest that they're among the best in the league.

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The Subtle Value Of Great Point Guards: Why Potential Assists Matter

For all the emphasis on scoring points, being able to perform that function of a ball handler well has value that is easily overlooked. So just how valuable are point guards?

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Ranking the Lynx, Part II

As someone who never got a chance to see the great teams of the Houston Comets or the Minnesota Lynx, I've always been interested in which teams in the WNBA were the best ever. My favorite method - every stathead had his favorite metric - is the Noll-Scully Measure.

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Plus-Minus: A Primer & The Value Of Four-Year WNBA Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)

There are two forms of plus/minus currently publicly available to WNBA fans: the type that shows up in the boxscore and "net plus/minus" often used for to evaluate player seasons. Here we introduce a third: Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM).

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Pre-game at the Rock: The Formula For 'Possessions'

A look at the concept of "possessions" vs. "plays".

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Swish Appeal Statistics Glossary

A list of some of the statistics we use most often for reference.

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Statistical Summary for Seattle's best: Where team synergy is sweeter than revenge

As fulfilling as it was to watch the Storm avenge their first loss of the season in Chicago, it was even sweeter as a fan of the game to watch a quarter in which a team executed an offense so well. After the game, Storm coach Brian Agler commented on the team's ball movement, noting that they finished the game with 24 assists, partially a result of the Sky's defensive strategy.

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Updated Rookie Ranking Framework

Based upon the few years of observation and the statistical work of others, I've came up with the following logic for evaluating rookie performance last year. Rookie Rankings: A Resolution for...

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Fun With Age Curves

It would be a great thing if we knew how much "future value" a player had. This is why being a GM is hard; ofttimes you find yourself on the wrong side of history. Age curves and other predictive metrics are attempts to get on the "right side" of history.

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Early season analysis: How are WNBA teams approaching the process of "forming chemistry"?

Normally at this time of the week I would write about rookie rankings or do an analysis of which teams are hot and not. However, with most teams still coming together in very significant ways any assertions about a league pecking order right now after 2 to 4 games would be almost entirely arbitrary. So how are teams trying to come together?

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Team Factors and Possessions: Describing a Team’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Having looked at the style and value of a team’s performance, today I’m going to move on to describing the substance of a team’s strengths and weaknesses that contribute to success (or failure). Once a team’s strengths and weaknesses are established, it’s also possible to look at each individual’s contribution to those strengths and weaknesses.

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Describing Team Styles

Returning to the UConn’s big victory over Stanford, rhythm and synergy played a major role in flow of the game, if we believe that the words of commentators, coaches, and players were more than empty rhetoric. The question is how to measure those nebulous concepts in a way that represents what one might observe.

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Putting Games in Perspective with Model-Estimated Value: UConn Sets a Standard for Excellence

Just as UConn coach Geno Auriemma pushed former point guard Jennifer Rizzotti, the question that is often difficult to answer by looking at wins and final scores is how well a team played on a given night within the broader context of previous performances. How close was a team to that standard of perfection they pursue, independent of the final score?

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Illuminating the Black Box: Using Statistics to Understand Women's College Basketball

Basketball statistics should be used to complement, not replace, the subjective beauty of games like basketball. So the question is: what details should we be looking to illuminate with the numbers, especially in a game like women's college basketball?

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Describing Point Guard Styles

Given that I’ve made posts this week about San Antonio point guard Becky Hammon, Atlanta point guard Shalee Lehning, and a game that featured Washington point guard Lindsey Harding, you probably...

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The (Tentative) Rethinking Basketball Rookie Ranking Framework

This is my explanation of how I created my first rookie rankings this season. Those rankings can be found here.I return to a January 2008 article by Bradford Doolittle at Basketball Prospectus,...

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