Team MVPs: MVPs are determined using David Sparks' Marginal Victories Produced (MVP). This measures "value" in terms of how much credit an individual player deserves for a team's wins. How much does a player contribute to a team's success? The formula is the player's production (Model Estimated Value) divided by both teams' overall production, which makes a player's individual rating a measure of a player's impact on the entire game rather than just their team. Additionally, players that lead their teams to blowouts obviously fare better with this rating than players who consistently play close games or lose games. It is described by David Sparks at Hardwood Paroxysm.
For reference, WNBA MVP winners are typically in the 13-15 MVP range, top MVP candidates usually in the 10-13 range, starters on winning teams in the 9+ range, role players in the 7-9 MVP range, and rotation players generally rate over 5.
Key statistic: Determined by finding the largest weighted Four Factors (shooting efficiency, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding, free throw rate) differential between the winning team and their opponent. Click here for more.
Key player: After determining the MVPs, I usually take the key player as the player who made the biggest Four Factors contribution to the winning effort or the player with the next highest MVP rating in the game on either team.