About a year and a half ago, I posted about PACE in the Pleasant Dreams blog. The idea of PACE was borrowed from the ESPN's "Performance Above Seed Expectations"

So what does PACE mean? The idea behind PACE is that if you examine the history of the NCAA tournament, you can make an estimate of how many games a #X seed is expected to win in the tournament. Let's go over the numbers from women's basketball since 1994 - the first year the women's tournament expanded - and explain each one.

3.73 - 1
2.63 - 2
2.36 - 3
1.81 - 4
1.11 - 5
1.08 - 6
0.84 - 7
0.47 - 8
0.63 - 9
0.36 - 10
0.36 - 11
0.25 - 12
0.13 - 13
0.00 - 14
0.00 - 15
0.02 - 16

We'll take a look at the first number, the 3.73. In general, since 1994 a #1 seed can be expected to win 3.73 games in the tournament. Before you question that number - doesn't a team win it all if they win six games? - remember that there are four #1 seeds in a tournament. If one of the #1 seeds wins, then three lose and we obtain this number by counting all wins and losses by any of the #1 seeded teams.

The number makes sense. It's almost 4 wins. Winning the first four games in the NCAA women's tournament takes you to the national semifinals - where you're likely to bump into another #1 seeded team, leading to an even split between those #1 teams in the national semifinal - one wins, one loses.

Also note the zeros next to the 14th and 15th numbers on the list. A #14 seed or a #15 seed has never won a game in the women's basketball tournament since the tournament expanded to 64 teams. In sixteen years, the combined record of those #14 and #15 seeds is 0-128.

Not that there haven't been a few close calls. Occasionally enough a #14 or #15 seed can get within single digits of a #3/#2 seed in the first round. The closest a #15 team has come to knocking off a #2 was last year when Texas-San Antonio took Baylor to overtime before falling 87-82 in South Bend, Indiana. This was the game where coach Kim Mulkey of Baylor was hospitalized earlier on game day due to a medication reaction. The Roadrunners actually led 71-69 in overtime before falling.

As for the #3 vs. #14 matches, the #14 team has finished within two points of the higher seeded team twice - North Carolina beat Austin Peay 72-70 in 2003 and Boston College squeezed by Eastern Michigan 58-56 in 2004. So we can conclude that sooner or later, a #14 or #15 team is going to get lucky. Will it happen this year?

Note that the #16 team has an expected wins value of 0.02...not zero. In 1998, #16 Harvard managed to beat an injury depleted #1 seed Stanford 71-67. The first-round defeat of Stanford helped #9 seed Arkansas make it to the Final Four - the lowest-ranked seed ever to make a Final Four since 1994.

An interesting pair of numbers are those associated with the #8 and #9 seeds. As a rule, a #9 is more likely to go deeper in the tournament than a #8 seed is. It might be something to think about when you're filling out your first round brackets.

The real power of PACE is that one can look at individual basketball coaches and determine how well they perform against expected value. For example, note that a #4 seeded team is expected to win 1.81 games in the tournament. If Coach X coaches the #4 seed to two wins, you can say that Coach X has earned + 0.19 wins above expected value. If Coach X wins the first game but loses the second-round game, Coach X has performed -0.81 wins over expected value. You can then follow Coach X over the years across the various ways his or her team is seeded and evaluate the coach based on PASE - how well a coach performs above and beyond his or her seed expectations.

I did this in 2008, and it was a pain in the ass to track coaches over NCAA seeds, total wins, and total NCAA appearances. I had to limit it to the previous five tournaments. Over 2004 to 2008, Pat Summitt had the best PACE with a +1.29 record - her teems could be expected to perform 1.29 games beyond the seed expectation. (Geno Auriemma was 0.57 over that time period, behind Tara VanDerveer with +0.59 and C. Vivian Stringer with +0.57.) The most overrated coach? Jim Foster of Ohio State with a PACE of -1.24 from 2004 to 2008. In general, his teams could be expected to perform 1.29 games under their seed expectation.

So what does the above tell us?

* That # 9 seeds beating #8 seeds might be good bets.
* That #2 and #3 seeds are usually sure bets in the first round.
* That Pat Summitt will probably take Tennessee to the Final Four at the least.
* That Ohio State might have an earlier-than-expected exit.

Hope you enjoy the tourney. I know I will.

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It’s your turn…  well, okay, it’s really the women’s turn! The Women’s NCAA Basketball Bracket is out! Let’s just find out how much you know about women’s basketball. Women’s Talk Sports is sponsoring a contest to pick the winners. Test yourself against C and R (and other Women Talk Sports members). Pick your bracket and win prizes! Yes, prizes!

BTW,  we receive no money for endorsing this website and bracket, just good clean fun. (Although we fully expect to reap the prizes!)

Last year C was in the early lead in the early rounds with her picks. Then R came roaring back and won. And she hasn’t shut up about it since. So please, please join the WTS group and out duel R and make her behave!

Join the WomenTalkSports group for the Bracket Challenge! Here's how:

1. Check out NCAA Games and create a user account. (name, password)
2. Click here to head to the Women's Basketball Bracket page. (or go to D-1 Women’s basketball-picks)
3. Navigate to "Join a Group"- Join the WomenTalkSports group by entering:

group name: WomenTalkSports password: womentalksports
It's as simple as that, but will be loads of fun as WTS will be giving away random prizes throughout the tournament and a grand prize for the winner of our bracket challenge!

Join and complete the bracket by SATURDAY, MARCH 20TH. Tell your family and friends to join!

Email me if you have problems-- it was a little challenging for me to sign up. I am listed as "Stanford.C" and R is "Stanford.R" Unoriginal I know, but this way you will know who is crushing you!

Sign up Today!

We run into some UCLA fans in the bar (hey, it was the only place near the arena open for lunch). They say they heard UCLA’s Jasmine Dixon was hurt. That she got hurt in the semi-final game against USC. C and R look at each other. Maybe they are trying to give us false hope. 

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Hello from LA, CA! C and R here reporting from the Galen Center on USC’s campus, flying in just in time to see the Stanford Women’s Basketball team play Cal (again) in the semi-finals of the PAC-10 tournament. The neat thing about being here (and not watching it on TV) is all the friends we are making!

We want to give a special shout out to D and C, our delightful friends from CAL! Yes, that’s right, they were Cal fans but sat next to us and were a lot of fun. C, the new one, is from Ohio, just like original C, so Original C said we would say hi to them in the blog. Hope they know how to use a computer! (boom-roasted!)

Okay, next order of business, we want to assuage your worries, C and or R were not the fan that was almost kicked out of the game. Repeat, C and R were not kicked out, and no one bothered us about our tinkle bells for Joslyn Tinkle.

So let’s back up a bit. Stanford was beating Cal handily, thanks to Jayne Appel’s appearance and no thanks to the bad refereeing. Two of the refs we recognized from previous Stanford games, and we were not fans of them then. They didn’t make any friends in this game, either. They certainly "Let Them Play" and there was a lot of rough pushing and fouls not called.

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Connie James came to Long Island University four years ago fresh off of back-to-back girl's basketball state championships at Absegami High School. Ranked the top defender in New Jersey by the the Newark-Star Ledger, the Blackbirds hoped James' winning ways would help a talented team on the rise. Four years later, those predictions appeared to have been right on target as LIU hosts St. Francis (PA) in the Northeast Conference Championship Game tomorrow at 3pm on ESPNU.

"They probably figured I understood what it takes to win games," James said about being recruited to LIU. "The challenge is knowing that every game can be different."

In her freshman season, James made an immediate impact, starting 20 of 31 games as the Blackbirds recorded their first 20-win season in program history. LIU headed into the 2007 NEC Tournament as the top seed, another first. But a stunning, opening-round home loss to the eighth seed ended the NCAA tournament dream for James in her freshman season. And it was easy for most to overlook James' contributions, since classmate Valerie Nainima garnered every award the NEC had to offer.

A 24-8 record made it two 20-plus seasons in a row for the Blackbirds. In her sophomore season, James played in every game - starting all but one. Back-to-back 48 percent field goal shooting seasons for James paled in comparison to her 100-plus assist and rebounding efforts. The fourth-seeded Blackbirds hosted the first two rounds of the 2008 NEC Tournament. After winning the first two games, LIU headed to Pennsylvania for their first NEC Championship Game under head coach Stephanie Gaitley. The Blackbirds lost to Robert Morris 86-75 to end the season and end James' NCAA tournament dream for a second-straight year.

The borough of Brooklyn invented the term "Wait Until Next Year". But on LIU's campus, things didn't look that optimistic shortly after the season ended. As four key seniors prepared to graduate, Gaitley then Nainima also departed. With a new coaching staff and new teammates all around, it would have been easy for Connie James to give up as a rebuilding effort began around her. Despite a 9-20 NEC tournament-less junior season, James posted another 100-plus rebound and assist effort. And teammate Ashley Palmer became the second Blackbird in the James' era to garner NEC All-Rookie and the All-Conference Team accolades. There was hope, despite a ninth place NEC Preseason Coaches Poll prediction for the 2009-10 season. "The newcomers fit right in," James stated earlier this year. "This year, it felt really good."

What the NEC coaches failed to predict was that Blackbirds second-year head coach Gail Striegler could crunch a "rebuilding" plan into less than two seasons. LIU breezed through the regular season with a 20-9 record, earning the second seed for the 2010 NEC Tournament. Two wins later, they find themselves hosting the NEC Championship Game. And James' efforts might be the most unheralded of all.

James will end her career at Long Island University as a 1,000 point scorer and second all-time in assists. The 5'8" guard will also end her career ninth place all-time in program history with 705-plus rebounds. Although she will  finish her career without any All-Conference or Player of the Year awards, James is the only player to be a part of all three 20-win seasons in LIU history. A NCAA Tournament appearance would be the most fitting reward of all.

So the Stanford Women’s Basketball team takes the floor against Arizona for their first PAC-10 tournament game. No Jayne Appel, of course, still bum ankle, so Joslyn Tinkle starts. Then, we lose the jump ball. We NEVER lose the jump ball. So much so that C has a superstition if we lose the jump ball, we will lose the game. Not sure how scientific it is, but C is nervous.

For the first three minutes or so we offensively try to work it inside to Tinkle standing in Jayne Appel’s spot in the low post, but she is still a freshmen and is not able to drive aggressively to the basket as Jayne does so effortlessly. Tinkle does pass quickly and seems to be on par with Jayne’s court vision and ability to assist. Unfortunately, Stanford is cold, cold, cold and missing everything. Our top scorer, Nneka Ogwumike, is especially missing everything. Is she too tight?

At the first media time out, they announce they will show senior tributes to the seniors playing in their last games. Stanford goes first and of course they lead off with Jayne, who is not playing this game. She mentioned it was neat to travel to the PAC-10 schools and loved the history of playing on their courts. Then they show Ros Gold-Onwude. RGO was aware how as a student-athlete kids looked up to her and was always amazed little kids wanted her autograph. Well, that was C and R’s little girl’s basketball team most of this year!

Back to live action, Tinkle sets a nice screen to free Jeanette Pohlen for her second three and we go up 10-5. Now Michelle Harrison comes in for Tinkle and C and R like having the fifth year veteran in there. JJ Hones comes in at 11-minute mark, in what is still a low scoring game. Stanford is up 12-7. Lindy LaRoque gets into the game, too, and C and R are glad to see  Head Coach Tara Van Derveer using her bench to give rest to the veterans and experience to her second string. Lindy gets to experience fouling Arizona, too. Mel Murphy gets in as well and we almost didn’t recognize her, as she does not have her black tights.

Arizona’s Ify Ibekwe and Nneka are guarding each other, each being the other’s dopple ganger. Then it looks like our Nneka is going top take over the game like she did with Cal but it is their Nneka, Iky Ibekwe, who takes over.

Then our Nneka says, "Oh not you don’t" and tries to match her baskets. But Kayla Pedersen says, "Don’t forget about me, ladies," and gets a hot hand. Those three will score most of the points in the first half.

At the half, Nneka has 15, and their Nneka has 15 points. Kayla has 6 and Jeanette Pohlen says, "Don’t discount the three", going 4-6 from behind the line and she has 9. So with the score 34-24 at the half, oh, don’t make me do math… Those four players have combined for 45 of the 58 points scored.

When the second half starts, Nneka gets her second personal foul at the 16:45 mark but credit to Tara for leaving her in the game instead of yanking her out. She knows how important she is to us offensively. Nneka later drains 2 free throws and Nneka is 100% from the free throw line, 7-7 with just under 15 minutes left. The PAC-10 tournament record is 11 made, attempts are 13 and Nicole Powell has the free throw percentage record of 100% (8-8).

As we are contemplating records, Arizona gets a three and are within 3 with 13:27 left. The score is 43-40. What the heck happened? Must have been losing that jump ball in the beginning of the game.

OMG then Tara must be nervous because Jayne Appel comes in the game! We have been told all week long she would not play in this game, or practically any game in this tournament, yet one little scare and there she is. Tara needn’t have worried as we drain 2 three-pointers and are back to up by 9. Tara would say later in the post-game press conference that having Jayne relaxed us (and her). No doubt, Jayne is our emotional leader.

Their Nneka scores a basket around the 6 and a half minute mark and C and R realize it is her first points in the second half. Wow, great D on her, Stanford. She would end up with 18 for the game, after 15 in the first, with no one else from her team getting into double digits. Hard to win if you don’t have a supporting cast.

Our Nneka is fouled at the 5:02 mark. Oh goodie! With Stanford firmly in control of the score again (58-46), we can concentrate on her record, or attempt of being a perfect 8-8 from the line to tie Nicole Powell’s record. She is now 7-7. She was fouled as she made her basket, so she gets one attempt to tie. She lets go… She misses! Arrgh!

Jayne looks ragged, not jumping much for rebounds or a lay-up. She would get fouled several times going to the basket. She would score 7 points and comes out after 10 minutes when we have a 13-point lead. She did give us the confidence we needed, though.

Nneka makes two more free throws now that the record is no longer there. She would end up 9-10 on free throws. The tournament record is 11 made. Maybe next game. Nneka did end up with 25 points for the game, than Jeanette with 15 and Kayla with 11.

Our subs come in and we go on to win 72-52. But the game was closer than it needed to be. Tara said her the post game press conference that we need to play better if we want win in the PAC-10 Championship. She’s not one to sugarcoat things, is she?

Next up is a repeat with Cal. This time Jayne Appel will be in the mix!

More Stanford Goodies at the original C and R's Stanford Women's Basketball Blog

Okay, so remember how C and R reported that Nneka Ogwumike won the PAC-10 Player of the Year Award? And four Stanford starters, Nnemkadi Ogwumike, Jayne Appel, Kayla Pedersen, and Jeanette Pohlen made the All PAC-10 team and Ros Gold-Onwude made the five-member All-Defensive team? ‘Member? Well, that was the PAC-10 MEDIA awards, as voted on by "Select" members of the media, and no, as far as C and R know, garden-variety bloggers were not invited. So, did that not count as the real thing? We don’t know, but the "Real" PAC-10 Awards were announced today, as voted on by the PAC-10 coaches. Guess what, they are almost identical to the media awards with the notable exception they gave out rookie awards and Joslyn Tinkle got an honorable mention. So then… why have the two? Either have it be all coaches, or have it be coaches and media combined, but don’t have two separate awards that are so very similar. Anyway, that’s C and R’s opinion.

Or, on second thought, why not get the bloggers involved. C and R vote the "Purple and Blue Award" for Jayne’s ankle. Wait, strike that, instead we would hand out an award for "The Most Talked About Ankle in PAC-10 History", winner, Jayne Appel’s. (As of this press time, she will not play in the early rounds of the PAC-10 tourney). Or "The Team with the Most Player Who Cannot Legally Vote?" I think Cal has a couple of 17 year olds. Oregon wins "Most Shots in Seven Seconds or Under". And we want to see more of this team and coach, and we would have voted Paul Westhead Coach of the Year for the remarkable turn around he did with that team. We heard the rap on him was that his team did not finish "High" enough in the wins column to get Coach of the Year Honors.

Okay, here are the coaches’ PAC-10 awards:
All PAC-10 team: Nnemkadi Ogwumike, Jayne Appel, Kayla Pedersen, and Jeanette Pohlen (Ros Gold Onwude received an honorable mention)
All Freshmen Team Honorable mention, Joslyn Tinkle
All Defensive Team: Ros Gold-Onwude (Kayla Pedersen received an honorable mention)

These awards were announced Wednesday. The Pac-10 Player of the Year, Pac-10 Freshman of the Year, Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year and Pac-10 Coach of the Year as voted on by the head coaches will be announced on Thursday, March 11. (!!!)

So today they announced the PAC-10 Individual Awards:
Stanford's Nneka Ogwumike won the PAC-10 Player of the Year
USC’s Gilbreath and Stanford’s Gold-Onwude named PAC-10 Co-Defensive Player of the year.
UCLA’s Nikki Caldwell voted PAC-10 Coach of the Year

Okay, we don’t get this either. Why announce some of the PAC-10 coaches’ awards and save some for another day? We give up! 

Well, congratulations to Nneka for being PAC-10 player of the year, again, and to Ros Gold Onwude for being co-defender of the year. Next year we will just wait until April to announce awards. 

Oh wait, as long as we are talking about awards, our number one recruit who will play Stanford Women’s basketball next year, Chiney Ogwumike, and Nneka’s sister, also won an award. Chiney Ogwumike was named National Player of the Year. As in the whole darn country. She finished her high school career leading her team to a second Class 5A Basketball Championship in three years. 

Chiney has played in the state tournament all four years she has been at her high school, Cypress Fairbanks in Houston, Texas. In the title game this year she had 31 points, 18 rebounds, seven steals and three blocks. She didn’t have a turnover and dominated the game in every way possible. She was also the tournament’s MVP.

Oh boy, can’t wait until next year! Wonder who will win what?

More Stanford Stuff (but Not PAC-10-okay some PAC-10 stuff) at the original C and R's Stanford Women's Basketball Blog

Let's review the Hall of Fame Probability calculator from our previous post. The calculator, used by Basketball-Reference.com, attempts to determine the probability of a given NBA player making the Naismith Hall of Fame given the player's statistics and accomplishments. I've always been interested in extending this calculator to the WNBA, and now I've finally been able to do it. pilight provided the MVP shares data and made some suggestions that I've incorporated into the final product.

Of course, the WNBA and the NBA are not the same. Extending WNBA data to an NBA metric required overcoming some problems. As we go through the metric, we'll explain the glitches and the resolutions to those problems.

Another problem - not really a problem, if you think about it - is that Hall of Fame selection for basketball depends upon factors other than one's pro career, regardless if one examines Naismith HOF or Women's Basketball HOF criteria. Contributions in college ball and the international career of a player can be considered whereas the HOF probability calculator ignores each of those. In the end, the number yielded by the HOF probability calculator is the probability that a player would make the (in our case) a hypothetical women's pro basketball HOF solely based on her professional career statistics. In real life, a player could have a probability significantly less than 100 percent but might be assured HOF selection given a strong college career or a coaching career - the HOF considers all contributions made by a player to the sport.

With that in mind, let's look at each of the factors in the linear metric used by Basketball-Reference.com and check them for relevance.

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Let’s see what would make a good sub heading?

-Nneka To the Rescue (Well, Kayla Pedersen did score that last second basket to end up with 23 points to Nneka’s 22. Did they have a little side bet going on to see who would be high scorer? However, it WAS Nneka Ogwumike’s ability to elevate and score when we seemed nervous and stuck offensively that saved the day. Although we saw Jeanette Pohlen looking for Kayla when she was pressured, and Kayla was so calm and collected when pressured and dribbled out of many jams so I guess they both saved the day and that is not an accurate headline.)

-Surprise, Stanford wins by Defense (Yes, Stanford is not known for their defense, but their defense was phenomenal in stopping Cal and making them miss when they did get a shot at the basket-more on that later-but that makes for a boring headline.)

-Kill off One Head of the Three Headed Monster and the Other Two Will Rise to Eat You (No, too obscure, because then we would have to explain that with our Jayne Appel out, one part of the three trees, or monster heads, we still have Kayla and Nneka, and you can’t stop them, too, and oh never mind if you have to explain it it’s just not funny…so how about…)

-Jayne Appel on Sidelines with Sprained Ankle. C and R Have Heart Attacks! (That’s more like it for a sub headline. Wait, hold it, we are getting ahead of the story, and whenever C and R go anywhere, like Cal, there’s always a story, and this is no exception. So let’s start at the beginning)

Perhaps a headline should be "Surprise, Surprise, Stanford fans find parking in Berkeley". After we find our parking space, C and R stop for a snack and R has a breakfast burrito and C has a falafel with extra tahini sauce, in an only-in-Berkeley Greek/American restaurant. Food was excellent BTW.

So C and R continue our walk in to Haas Pavilion for the game between the Cal Bears and The Stanford Women’s Basketball Team. A large and spirited crowd is outside Haas Pavilion and it is a carnival-like atmosphere.

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