On a recent bracketology thread, A Sea of Blue's Greg Alan Edwards notes that if Charlie Creme's bracketology is correct in detail, his Kentucky Wildcats will have to go to the Big Apple, where they will they could face St. Johns on the Red Storm's home turf... if the Red Storm as a projected 10 seed pull a first round upset.
This revives an annual tradition of placement complaints that arise ever since the 2003 (?) decision to predetermine the sites of the first and second round games in the NCAA tourney, instead of having all 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds host the early rounds, and to procedurally move teams on the S curve to minimize the cost of travel. UK doesn't have the worst deal in Creme's current bracketology. Who has the worst deal depends on what you think is worse: a 1 or 2 playing on the home turf of a 7-9, or a 3 or 4 facing a 5 or 6 on their home court. In the former case, one should at least expect the 1 or 2 to be able to win on the road vs. a team 15 slots below them on the S curve (or 30 slots in the case of the 2-10 matchup UK might face). In the latter, the home court difference would be more likely to sway the outcome. But one can also respond to the complaints from a 3 or 4 by saying: "win more games to get a 1 or a 2 and you won't have the problem".
Being too lazy to look for venue info that's not on Wikipedia, I went back to examine some past instances high seeds playing at the home of a lower seed.
year | region | team/seed | result |
---|---|---|---|
2004 | East | #8 Va Tech | Lost in Rd 2 to #1 Penn State |
East | #5 Notre Dame | S16, after upsetting out #4 UNC | |
East | #11 UCSB | Lost in S16 to #2 UConn, after upsetting #6 Colorado and #3 Houston | |
MidEast | #6 Ohio State | Lost in Rd 2 to #3 Boston College | |
MidEast | #7 Minnesota | Final Four, upsetting #2 Kansas State, #3 Boston College, #1 Duke | |
Midwest | #12 New Mexico | Lost in Rd 1 to #5 Florida | |
Midwest | #10 Chattanooga | Upset #7 Rutgers in Rd 1, lost to #2 Vandy | |
West | #11 Temple | Lost in Rd 1 to #6 TCU | |
2005 | Tempe | #13 UCSB @Fresno | Lost in Rd 1 to #4 Notre Dame |
Philadelphia | #14 Hartford @Storrs | Lost in Rd 1 to #3 Rutgers | |
Philadelphia | #7 Maryland | Lost in Rd 2 to #2 Ohio State | |
2006 | Cleveland | #8 Vanderbilt | Lost in Rd 2 to #1 UNC |
Cleveland | #10 Old Dominion | Lost in Rd 1 to #7 G. Washington | |
Albuquerque | #9 Notre Dame @W. Lafayette | Lost in Rd 1 to #8 Boston College | |
Albuquerque | #14 N. Arizona @Tucson | Lost in Rd 1 to #3 Baylor | |
2007 | Dayton | #8 Pitt | Lost in Rd 2 to #1 Tenn |
Greensboro | #5 Mich St. | Lost in Rd 2 to #4 Rutgers | |
Greensboro | #13 UC-Riverside @Los Angeles. | Lost in Rd 1 to #3 Arizona State | |
2008 | Greensboro | #5 Old Dominion | Lost in S16 to UConn after upsetting #4 Virginia (does this count?) |
Greensboro | #7 Iowa State @Des Moines | Lost in Rd 2 to #2 Rutgers | |
Spokane | #12 New Mexico | Lost in Rd 1 to #5 W. Virginia | |
Oklahoma City | #9 Purdue | Lost in Rd 2 to #1 Tenn | |
2009 | Trenton | #11 Georgia @Duluth | Lost in Rd 1 to #6 Ariz. St. |
Trenton | #7 Notre Dame | Upset in Rd 1 by #10 Minnesota | |
Berkeley | #9 Mich State | Lost in S16 to Iowa State after upsetting #8 Middle Tenn, and #1 Duke | |
Berkeley | #10 San Diego St. | Lost in Rd 2 to #2 Stanford after upsetting #7 DePaul | |
Raleigh | #6 LSU | Lost in Rd 2 to #3 Louisville | |
Oklahoma City | #8 Iowa | Lost in Rd 1 to #9 Georgia Tech | |
Oklahoma City | #12 Gonzaga @Seattle | Lost in Rd 2 to #4 Pitt after upsetting #5 Xavier | |
Oklahoma City | #7 Rutgers | Lost in S16 to #6 Purdue after upsetting #2 Auburn in Rd 2 | |
2010 | Memphis | #6 Texas | Lost in Rd 1 to #11 San Diego State |
Sacramento | #7 Gonzaga @Seattle |
Lost to #3 Xavier in S16 after upsetting #2 TAMU in Rd 2 (painful memories of that one) |
|
2011 | Philadelphia | #6 Penn State | Lost in Rd 2 to #3 Duke |
Dayton | #11 JMU | Lost in Rd 1 to #6 OU | |
Spokane | #11 Gonzaga | Lost to Stanford in the E8 after upsetting #6 Iowa, #3 UCLA, and #7 Louisville | |
Dallas | #10 La Tech @Bossier City | Lost in Rd 1 to #7 Rutgers | |
Dallas | #15 McNeese St. @Bossier City | Lost in Rd 1 to #2 TAMU | |
2012 | Des Moines | #8 tOSU @Bowling Green | Lost in Rd 1 to #9 Florida |
Des Moines | #14 UALR | Lost in Rd 1 to #3 Delaware | |
Fresno | #16 Hampton @Norfolk | Lost in Rd 1 to #1 Stanford | |
Fresno | #6 OU | Lost in Rd 2 to #3 St. Johns | |
Fresno | #7 Vandy | Lost in Rd 2 to #2 Duke | |
Kingston | #5 LSU | Lost in Rd 2 to #4 Penn State | |
Kingston | #11 Gonzaga | Lost in S16 to #2 Kentucky after upsetting #6 Rutgers and #3 Miami |
I bolded those cases where the lower seed upset a higher seed. There were many home court lower seeds in 2004. In 2005-2008 , the problem was partially dealt with by not having 16 sites for rounds 1 and 2. In 2009 the tourney went to 16 sites for the sub-regionals... and the number of lower seeds getting home court went up too.
My take home lessons from this:
- In general, as expected, the home court is worth something but it's probably within the noise of this small sample size of the cases where close seeds played each other.
- More specifically: If you are going anywhere near the Zags as a higher seed, be afraid.
This year Spokane is a regional site as well as a sub-regional.