Greg Alan Edwards of SB Nation's Kentucky site A Sea of Blue has been watching A'Dia Mathies closely this season and after yet another quiet performance against Middle Tennessee State University on Sunday - 7 points on 2-for-6 shooting and 5 fouls - he made a few observations that are relevant to Mathies' WNBA potential.
Although he notes that Mathies is leading the team in scoring average this season, it's the way she's gotten those points that he's most concerned about.
FG% 39.1 That's offensive in Mitchell's layup-oriented offense, and she is next to last on the team. Ft% .682 which is bad enough, but she is not getting to the line either. She is only 3rd in FT attempts. For a slasher and driver in the lane like A'Dia, it's less than stellar, way less. She has also fouled out of 2 of the 9 games that UK has played. The cold hard truth is that A'Dia is off her game, way off and it does not appear to be getting any better.
From a WNBA perspective, the most alarming thing for Mathies - whose college style of play projects to a scorer in the pros - is her shooting efficiency. Mathies' 2-point percentage (42.14%) is significantly below the rate of successful prospects in the past. Even if she was an elite 3-point shooter, the fact that she gets to the free throw line at such a low rate (20%) essentially casts her as an inefficient jump shooter.
Mathies' athleticism will keep her on draft radars and make her an attractive prospect - particularly for a team interested in her defensive potential that stands out when watching her (fouls notwithstanding) - but the early returns make you ask exactly what Edwards has: "Where's A'Dia?"