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2011 WNBA Finals: Atlanta Dream, Minnesota Lynx Have Both Improved Since Regular Season Series

The Minnesota Lynx swept the Atlanta Dream during the regular season in two games for which forward Sancho Lyttle was absent. Her presence could make a difference in the Dream's second consecutive trip to the WNBA Finals. Photo by Kailas Images.

Well, that was quite a statement the Atlanta Dream made tonight.

With their 83-67 rout of the Indiana Fever in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals at Conseco Fieldhouse, the Dream advanced to their second consecutive WNBA Finals.

Somebody will get a franchise-first championship and have a compelling story to go along with it.

And while the Lynx are probably a reasonable favorite at this point, it's hard anoint them champions just yet.

Star-divide

The 2011 WNBA Finals schedule - a five game series - is available at LynxBasketball.com (click here).

Below are the scores of the relevant regular season meetings  for each series (with links to the stats via Lynx Data, with efficiency, Four Factors, plus/minus, and miscellaneous stats).

#1 Minnesota Lynx vs. #3 Atlanta Dream

Regular season: Lynx 2-0

First game: Sunday, October 2 at 7:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN

Regular season review

Date Location Score Note
June 17 Minnesota 96-85 Lynx Sancho Lyttle absent
June 19 Atlanta 77-64 Lynx Lyttle absent

 

This regular season series means absolutely nothing - at this point, not only are the Dream an entirely different team, but the Lynx have made huge strides since June.

Quick summary:

  • Lyttle was away from the team playing for the Spanish National Team in the 2011 Eurobasket during those games. Her presence against the Lynx in the Finals, the best rebounding team in the league, is significant.
  • Also significant given the Lynx' rebounding prowess would be the return of Dream center Erika de Souza. Her return is obviously the most important thing to watch for this series right now.
  • It's worth noting that the Dream have been forcing turnovers at a higher rate in their second half run and they did have some success creating turnovers in that second game.
  • Iziane Castro Marques: 26.5 points per game in the Dream's two Eastern Conference Finals wins. Can she possibly keep up this pace against a strong Lynx defense?
  • A more subtle point that we've been discussing throughout the season: Lindsey Harding has made huge strides as the season has worn on and she just had 20 assists to only 5 turnovers in the Eastern Conference Finals. It will make a big difference for a team that thrives on transition offense and driving to the basket.
  • Here's a question as food for thought: Will the Dream look to this small lineup more often since it worked so well against the Lynx? The Lynx have the personnel to quickly take them out of it, but they did just discomfit a very talented Indiana Fever team with that small ball lineup, MVP Tamika Catchings' injury notwithstanding.
  • I know this has been entirely about the Dream because there are so many more question marks surrounding them, but Candice Wiggins' play in the Western Conference playoffs is also noteworthy. What stands out about Wiggins' play is that she's giving the team quality minutes as a reserve point guard and against a Dream team that likes to force turnovers, her ability to step in and assume ball handling responsibility will be huge for the Lynx.

The safe pick for this series is obviously the Lynx - they're an awesomely balanced team and it's hard to pick against them in any sort of best-of-whatever series situation. Just as we've seen the Dream adapt with different lineups, the Lynx can do something different on nearly every possession down the floor.

That said, it's hard to count out the Dream after beating the odds to make it to the WNBA Finals for a second year in a row - this team has proven that the odds don't mean much for two years in a row now.

So for now, let's keep the poll question simple: How many games will the 2011 WNBA Finals series go?

Feel free to drop your insights, links, and even go out on a limb that I was too scared to go out on and predict a winner in the comments.

Poll
How many games do you think the 2011 WNBA Finals between the Atlanta Dream & Minnesota Lynx will go?
Three
18 votes
Four
67 votes
Five
40 votes
Too soon to tell
9 votes

134 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 5 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I'll take that bet!

You referred to Minnesota as the safe bet. I like Atlanta in this series. They’ve had a tougher path to get to the finals, and have shown that they can win on the road. Minnesota will struggle if have a cold shooting night, as I don’t think they are as good defensively as Atlanta. Atlanta also has more recent playoff experience.

Those early season games don’t really mean anything as Atlanta was 1-3 going into that home and home series, and not playing very well. Both teams have gotten better since then, but I think Atlanta has improved more.

by OVJ on Sep 28, 2011 1:04 AM EDT reply actions  

I do think Minnesota has to be considered the safer pick

…if for no other reason having home court advantage and the fact that I don’t see the Dream beating the Lynx without de Souza (who will likely miss at least one game).

But yeah, I like this matchup, much better than the potential Indiana matchup – it should be a very entertaining series. Minnesota is hardly invincible as I think SASS has shown as well as anyone.

And no doubt the Dream have improved more, but they also had a LOT further to go. The Lynx have been a consistently impressive team.

Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Sep 28, 2011 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

The league will want Minnesota to win because of Maya

but then again, the East has only had one team win a championship, and now that team is also in the West.

by thewiz06 on Sep 28, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Minnesota is hardly invincible as I think SASS has shown as well as anyone.

As an unabashed, unapologetic SASS Homer, thank you for reminding us of this. With all the talk about Minnesota going 27 and 7, Minnesota having only 1 player with playoff experience, Minnesota being in their first ever playoff finals, and Minnesota having the “great” ROY Maya Moore, somehow it is totally lost on the commentators that SASS came within 1 basket of taking 2 games from the Lynx and eliminating the Lynx from the playoffs..

by lkg on Sep 29, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jerry Zgoda
Kahn and Adelman bought 2,000 tickets for Lynx’s Game 1 Finals. Half of them are free to anyone who calls 612-673-8400 first. Limit 2.

by Simitar on Sep 28, 2011 7:06 PM EDT reply actions  

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