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2011 WNBA All-Star Starters Announced: Who Are The Top Candidates For Reserves?

The WNBA has announced its 2011 All-Star starters tonight, with the following players being selected to the Eastern and Western Conference teams by the fans. 

Eastern Conference Western Conference
F- Tamika Catchings F - Swin Cash
F - Angel McCoughtry F - Maya Moore
C - Tina Charles C - Candace Parker
G - Katie Douglas G - Sue Bird
G - Cappie Pondexter G - Diana Taurasi

 

For the most part, these selections aren't unreasonable, even though it ends up amounting to the Big East - SEC Challenge (plus Purdue) - the good thing is that even the most questionable selections are defensible.

Star-divide

Every All-Star game in every sport is a popularity context and the WNBA is no different and that's not necessarily a bad thing in this case.

Maya Moore led all Western Conference forwards with 21,379 votes and although I would not have made that selection, you cannot debate that having her in the game is probably a good thing for league publicity. McCoughtry might not be everyone's first choice, but certainly has a strong argument to make the team and is one of the league's most exciting one on one players.

However, Moore's selection could also cause a very deserving Western Conference forward to be left out after the coaches pick reserves.

The process for coaches picking the six reserves is as follows:

  • Each coaches will vote for two guards, two forwards, a center, and a "wild card" player in their own conference.
  • Coaches are not permitted to vote for players on their own team.
  • Coaches are bound by the same positional designations that fans were in the voting process.
  • The reserves will be announced on ESPN2 on July 19 at 7 p.m. EST.
  • Of course, Parker will have to be replaced and that replacement will be named by WNBA President Laurel J. Richie but the starter in place of Parker will be determined by the Western Conference head coach.

So who should those reserves be?

Let's jump right to the Western Conference forwards because that's where there's a bit of a logjam.

Bear in mind that Maya Moore might not even rank as the top rookie forward right now, so that means there are quite a few players who might rate higher than her. Here's a list of the top forwards in the Western Conference, with MEV and plus/minus numbers:

WC Forward Name MEV +/-
Penny Taylor 21.15 18.1
Candice Dupree 16.93 14.9
Rebekkah Brunson 15.14 13.5
Sophia Young 16.65 12.7
Swin Cash 14.58 3.0
Danielle Adams 12.01 22.4
Kayla Pedersen 12.79 12.9
Maya Moore 12.65 6.5

 

Suffice it to say the following: there have been a number of strong Western Conference forwards this year and that wild card coaches' selection will almost certainly have to be a forward and an argument could be made for the presidential replacement selection being a forward to make sure  the most deserving players get in.

Independent of starters and reserves, the top five on that list above is hard to argue against. But with Cash and Moore in as starters, Young looks like one candidate to get left out if Parker is replaced directly with a center.

And unfortunately, the centers in the Western Conference is a bit of a weaker bunch after Parker:

WC Center Name MEV +/-
Liz Cambage 10.95 3.6
Kara Braxton 10.15 8.0
Taj McWilliams-Franklin 9.7 18.9
Ruth Riley 8.3 -12.9

 

All of these centers are pretty close and two of them could make the game. If one replaces Parker, Taj probably stands out with her plus/minus rating.

After that, it's a choice between Cambage and Braxton. Cambage is the better shot blocker, Braxton the better offensive rebouder.

The reserve guards in the West shouldn't require much discussion: Becky Hammon and Lindsay Whalen both have claims as MVP of their teams and deserve to be in this game.

Moving to the Eastern Conference, McCoughtry's spot is the one that you could quibble with:

EC Forward Names MEV +/-
Tamika Catchings 18.55 6.5
Crystal Langhorne 15.36 4.6
Plenette Pierson 11.60 5.3
Angel McCoughtry 10.41 -6.1
Asjha Jones 10.25 4.8
Michelle Snow 10.19 8.4

 

Obviously, McCoughtry has a strong case to be in the game. But so do the two players listed above "beneath" her.

That's made even tougher by the fact that the centers in the Eastern Conference are deeper, with one not getting votes as she wasn't on the ballot.

EC Center Name MEV +/-
Sylvia Fowles 19.42 0.6
Tina Charles 16.74 1.4
Jessica Davenport 12.13 16.8
Nicky Anosike 11.72 14.2

 

You could go either way on Charles and Fowles, but Davenport has played well enough to get in as the wild card selection from the coaches, although there are a few guards that might deserve a look. Especially if you consider point guards worthy of two of those guard spots.

EC Guards MEV +/-
Cappie Pondexter 18.13 22.3
Katie Douglas 16.40 4.0
Renee Montgomery 16.71 -6.1
Epiphanny Prince 15.82 -5.8
Kara Lawson 13.08 7.1
Essence Carson 13.34 -2.1
Courtney Vandersloot 10.56 8.1

 

You could go multiple ways with this.

First, the argument could be made for choosing a guard for that extra spot on the reserves although Davenport has such a big impact on the Fever that it's hard to overlook her.

Second, do you go with Vandersloot off the bench as a point guard or a more productive scoring guard with a negative plus/minus? Again, stats never reflect the extent of what a point guard does so Vandersloot could justifiably get the benefit of the doubt.

All in all, the starting selections weren't terrible, but make for some really interesting decisions for the reserves.

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What was surprising to me was how much the vote totals dropped off thanks to the elimination of paper ballots. Catchings’ vote total is about 1/4 of what Sue Bird drew as last year’s top vote getter.

by pilight on Jul 14, 2011 10:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Fair point.

I’d say it moreso for the Tulsa players than Langhorne – she’s still among the best offensive rebounders in the league and extremely efficient on an otherwise poor offense… but if she got left out, it would be understandable…

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 15, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Starting 10

looks like UConn against the world.

It will be depressing if Pierson and Braxton get in since it would mean Richardson traded two all-stars. But Braxton doesn’t play even half the game. I would exclude her just for that reason.

Pierson should get it though since she has the stats and has never been before.

by ttdomi on Jul 15, 2011 12:40 PM EDT reply actions  

You know, I was wondering if the WNBA all star game should be

UConn vs. everyone else. Make Geno the head coach with his staff of the UConn game, and have the everyone else team coached by the WNBA coach with the best regular season to that point.

Don’t think its right, if not an NCAA violation as it would give UConn an even more unfair advantage than they already do….

by thewiz06 on Jul 15, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve always wondered if college stars who turned down UConn ever regret doing so. Even the ones who ended up winning a national championship. No question a UConn pedigree is helpful at the WNBA and international levels.

by RP_45 on Jul 15, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Every graduating class except for two have won at least one championship since 1995

The championship classes are:

Class of 1999
Class of 2008

The Class of 1999 is the only class in that entire time to have failed to make at least one Final Four…..

by thewiz06 on Jul 15, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would think that as competitors...

at least an equal number of people would want to play for other programs and be the school to knock off UConn.

For example, how amazing must it be for Notre Dame to be able to say they knocked off UConn this year?

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 15, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

My impression is that at any level

the players are quite happy winning on the team that has a clear surplus of talent. Why take the risk of not doing it when going to UConn is almost a sure thing?

by ttdomi on Jul 15, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Because if you end up being TAMU this year and winning it all...

…it’s even sweeter because nobody expected you to do it.

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 15, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

No argument there

It is sweeter to win without a team packed with Parade magazine all-Americans. But since it happens so rarely I don’t think anyone wants to risk it. Those players on TAMU were there because the top schools – UConn, Tennesee, Duke, Stanford didn’t want them.

There are excpetions. Sometimes a player wants to say local and bypasses the obvious choices. But most of the time they are lined up for the big names.

by ttdomi on Jul 15, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Unfortunately,

WNBA free agents for the most part, behave like high school seniors.

by ttdomi on Jul 15, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Don't know about everywhere else

“There are two kinds of players in Connecticut, the ones who want to play for UConn and the ones who want to beat UConn.” (One of the more memorable lines from a WVU-SJU game, regarding Da’Shena Stevens.)

I am the victim of a basketball jones.

by Queenie on Jul 16, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Excellent quote

None of them are from Connecticut, but several players on the 2006 Maryland team had offers from UConn. I think they fall into the latter category…

by RP_45 on Jul 18, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Are they good at

WNBA and international level because they went to UConn or because Geno Auriemma gets to select the best high school players? It’s not like Sue Bird, Diana Tauarasi, Tina Charles, Swin Cash, Ashja Jones and company were unheralded coming out of high school.

by ttdomi on Jul 15, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

No question those players would be highly successful regardless, but I meant in terms of popularity, (i.e., All-Star voting), making a roster (for the borderline players), and with Team USA Basketball being a graduate of Connecticut is helpful.

by RP_45 on Jul 18, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Looks like they are the

only college who could field an entire WNBA team.

I think a team of

Sue Bird
Swin Cash
Diana Taurasi
Tina Charles
Asjha Jones
Renee Montgomery
Ketia Swanier
Charde Houston
Jessica Moore
Kalana Greene

would not only win the title, but could dominate the league

by ttdomi on Jul 15, 2011 2:48 PM EDT reply actions  

I find it funny that you didn't even mention Maya Moore :)

That’s an awfully impressive list…

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 15, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I had her on my original list

because I needed her to make 11. If I had taken the time to count the names in that post I would have noticed I only had 10 names.

by ttdomi on Jul 15, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tennessee

Former Lady Vols would probably challenge, though the starting lineup wouldn’t be as balanced.

Nicky Anosike
Shannon Bobbitt
Angie Bjorklund
Tamika Catchings
Shyra Ely
Alexis Hornbuckle
Kara Lawson
Candace Parker
Ashley Robinson
Michelle Snow
Sidney Spencer

by RP_45 on Jul 18, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

And for all that talent that stands out on both teams...

…the question I’m left with is:

Who would guard Tina Charles?

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 18, 2011 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

What is the deal with this fan post?

I looked for this type of fan post regarding 2011 All Star Reserve suggestions and I did not find this exact fan post or any other fan post about this topic. Therefore, I published a fanpost about this topic.

Thank you for the topic and for the detailed analysis to support the choices that you advise.

by 77DJK on Jul 16, 2011 4:59 AM EDT reply actions  

It's all good man. :)

It just probably got a little buried under some other stuff…

I’ll link yours here for people to comment on:

http://www.swishappeal.com/2011/7/16/2278565/any-ideas-for-2011-wnba-all-star-reserves

I think this year the stats match most reasonable conventional wisdom.

Where we might disagree is that I’m not sure Lyttle has played quite enough to make my list and I’d definitely go with Taylor over Dupree…

My hope is actually that the president choose Brunson to replace Parker and the West plays with one center..

I also think an argument could be made for Vandersloot… but it’s tough….

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 16, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I swear I did not see this fanpost before I published my own.

Because my suggestion happen to match your quantitative analysis.

You know what they say about great minds.

by 77DJK on Jul 16, 2011 5:02 AM EDT reply actions  

Thank you for the link and

I think that you have good ideas about Brunson. For Taylor vs. Dupree I think it is a choice between small (only a little) forward/shooting forward in Taylor vs. an effective power forward in Dupree who is the key rebounding force for the team that is in 1st place in the West. I think it is a toss up. I can understand using perhaps Taylor’s unusually high assist average as a tie breaker in her favor.

Vandersloot continues to do pretty good as a transition player and co-manager of the offense with Prince. She hustles on defense and get the occasional steal and breakaway lay up. But her field goal percentage and 3 point shooting average are a little low. As of today she does not average even 1 made 3 point field goal per night. However, she does make a lot of disciplined choices that work. I agree that she has shown that she has the pro level talent to develop similar to Jason Kidd who earned a place on the All Star roster in his second year in the NBA.

I think that Ms. Adams is also a borderline candidate for the all star team and an easier case to make than Vandersloot.

by 77DJK on Jul 16, 2011 7:02 PM EDT reply actions  

All good points, as usual

I agree that Adams is having a better season than Vandersloot, but in terms of all-star selections, their a) conference and b) position probably gives Vandersloot a bit of a better shot, depending on how you see these things – for whatever areas of improvement Sloot does have, she’s still one of her conference’s top point guards.

And I also agree with the reason you give Taylor the tie breaker. :) I’d probably add that her versatility overall helps the Merc a ton because it allows them to adjust to matchups (along with Bonner) much more easily.

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 16, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great Topic

If I follow the guidelines for the coaches, i.e. two forwards, two guards, one center, and one wild card, then here are my picks:

For the west:
Taylor and Dupree at forward
Wright and Whalen at guard (since Hammon injured)
Cambage at center
Brunson as my wild card

For the east:
Langhorne and Snow at forward
Carson and Lawson at guard
Fowles at center
Davenport as my wild card

by OVJ on Jul 17, 2011 3:32 PM EDT reply actions  

You also have an injury replacement for Parker...

Thoughts?

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 17, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

All-Star Starters/Reserves

Admit that fan voting is a joke! Replace it with something. Your suggestions look like a good starting point. Maya Moore a starting forward? Not only is she not in the top forwards in the league based on any objective criteria, she is not even the best rookie forward based on any objective criteria. Danielle Adams doesn’t get voted in because her name isn’t on the pick list and Maya Moore gets voted in because of her top draft pick status, her name on the pick list, and her UCONN ties. Put every player’s name on the pick list. Last I heard Danielle Adams was the leading write-in vote getter. Since it’s all a popularity contest, maybe being the leading write-in vote getter should get you a spot on the reserves. Now you want to add Cambage? Adams who plays inside/outside better than Moore or Cambage doesn’t make it simply because of position limitations. She’s not a “Center”. Come on, you’ve got 2 rookies in the game neither of which is the best rookie in the league.

by lkg on Jul 17, 2011 10:32 PM EDT reply actions  

"Come on, you’ve got 2 rookies in the game neither of which is the best rookie in the league."

Actually, I might not have any rookies in the game – I just provided some options and, yes, I think those rookies should be in the mix.

At center: Taj would be my first choice at center and I think the president’s pick should not be used on a center but a forward.

As for Adams: I don’t think any rookie forward has a very good case this year, Adams’ popularity aside. The West is just stacked at that position.

The rookie with a reasonable chance is Vandersloot if some coaches believe a point guard should be given one of those guard spots, but I think it’s debatable whether she’s deserving.

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 18, 2011 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

West Conference All-Star Forwards

I agree. The League is stacked with many very good forwards. I actually voted for Sophia Young and wrote in Danielle Adams. So many good forwards already in the league contributed to Adams being the 20th player picked in the draft. We’ll have to wait till the season is over to know for sure. But, right now Adams has to be the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year. Like she says, she’s spent her whole life proving people wrong. National JUCO Player of the Year 2009, First Team NCAA All-American 2011 (along with Maya Moore 2011 NCAA Player of the Year and Danielle Robinson 6th overall WNBA pick and San Antonio team-mate), June 2011 WNBA Rookie of the Month.

by lkg on Jul 18, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree on Adams being ROY as of today

If for no other reason, the narrative is compelling even if the numbers right now are relatively close.

And that said, I think Moore will get it… for the same reason she’s an All-Star starter. It wouldn’t be the most egregious tragedy in sports history… but other people are clearly deserving.

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 18, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

"Admit that fan voting is a joke! Replace it with something."

And I agree: I’m not a fan of fan voting. :)

I’m even all for what a commenter said here:

http://www.swishappeal.com/2011/6/17/2229174/WNBA-All-Star-Selection-Process

Let players/coaches select. Or some kind of split voting….

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 18, 2011 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Model-Estimated Value

How is Model-Estimated Value (MEV) calculated? I can’t find an answer to that anywhere. I can find that it is some weighted combination of total points, field goal percentage, free throw percentage, total rebounds, total assists, and probably some other criteria; but, I can’t find anything telling me exactly how it is calculated. How can I argue with you about player values based on MEV when i can’t find out how MEV is calculated? If MEV is so much better than +/- or efficiency, why do both the NBA and the WNBA list +/- or efficiency in the box scores/player stats? AND NOT MEV?

by lkg on Jul 17, 2011 10:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Great point about MEV

And my apologies for not including this link:

http://www.swishappeal.com/2009/12/24/1218850/putting-games-in-perspective-with

There are a lot of metrics out there to choose from. And all kinds of arguments for which are best. I use MEV for the following reason: the results aren’t much different than other metrics (all have wrinkles) and it can be used at both the team and player level, which gives a consistent “constellation” of tools. I find it to be hugely useful in terms of player contribution to team and how things fit together.

EFF is not taking that seriously in the APBRmetrics community… but if you want an overview of some others, here you are:

http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2007/12/04/evaluating-player-ratings-year-to-year-correlations/

+/- is a different sort of metric based on team performance on and off the court, so it’s complementary more than anything else…but, as alluded to in the countthebasket link, adjusted plus/minus is better for reasons that are pretty quickly evident.

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 18, 2011 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

MEV

Using this formula and today’s statistics: MEV = pts – 1.032*fgx – 0.587*ftx + 1.193*as + 1.030*or + 0.512*dr + 1.603*st + 0.981*bk – 1.448*to – 0.225*pf.
I get Total MEV per Season for Adams, Moore, Cambage at 150.63, 155.37, and 135.88 respectively. When I put these on a per game basis, I get 12.55 for Adams, 11.95 for Moore, and 9.71 for Cambage. I’m not sure why my numbers don’t match your numbers?
I think it is obvious you have to put them on a per game basis since someone who’d played more games might have several more total points. I didn’t try putting them on a 40-minute basis; but, I don’t think that is a good measure because someone who plays 20-25 minutes per game simply might not be capable of playing 40 minutes.

by lkg on Jul 18, 2011 6:37 PM EDT reply actions  

The reserves have been announced

http://www.swishappeal.com/2011/7/19/2283880/2011-wnba-all-star-reserves-snubs

Closing comments here, feel free to continue the discussion at the link above.

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports...and trying to maintain a Golden State of Mind about the Warriors. Twitter: @NateP_SBN.

by Nate Parham on Jul 20, 2011 12:46 AM EDT reply actions  

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