NCAA Women's Bracket 2011: Which Second Round Upset Was Most Surprising?

The #11 Gonzaga Bulldogs' 89-75 upset of the #3 UCLA Bruins was predictable.

So predictable that UCLA fans at SBN's Bruins Nation think that their athletic director should have protested the seeding and/or being sent to Spokane and/or being placed in Stanford's bracket.

Dan Guerrero Fiddles as NCAA Screws UCLA Women's Basketball Program - Bruins Nation
We understand that Guerrero might not have wanted to ruffle any feathers. He is good buddies with those NCAA bureaucrats. But is it too much to ask from Dan to show a semblance of public leadership and speak up on behalf of student athletes who just got screwed?

But yesterday, March Madness truly began on the women's side with multiple upsets. So which was most surprising?

#7 Louisville def. #2 Xavier

Louisville upsets Xavier behind Schimmel's 33 - Card Chronicle
Xavier had won 25 in a row at home, including a 12-point victory over Louisville in November. That streak, which dated back to 2009, ended thanks to Schimmel, who went 12 of 18 from the field and 6 of 11 from behind the arc. The freshman guard topped her previous career-high by seven.

Why it's surprising? Conventional wisdom might suggest that a team with Xavier's size would overwhelm Louisville, particularly on the offensive boards.

Why it's not surprising? Louisville had a much better turnover differential entering the tournament, forcing opponents into turnovers on just over 30% of their possessions. Last night - in addition to up winning the rebounding battle in the second half - Louisville had 20 steals to contribute to Xavier's 24 turnovers.

#6 Oklahoma def. #3 Miami

OU women's basketball takes down Miami 88-83, advances on to Sweet Sixteen - Crimson And Cream Machine
The women were able to overcome their 18 turnovers to defeat the Hurricanes primarily due to several clutch performances. The first came in Whitney Hand's career high 27 points on 9-15 shooting (3-7 from three), she also chipped in five rebounds, four assists, and two steals. OU also got 18 points from D-Rob, albeit on 5-17 shooting, but it was her presence with the ball in her hands that truly helped the Sooners routinely break the Miami press.

Why it's surprising? Oklahoma had a negative turnover differential entering the tournament, Miami forced turnovers a lot and managed to force 18 yesterday. People wondered if James Madison University might beat Oklahoma.

Why it's not surprising? It's tournament time: people step up, especially seniors.

#6 Georgia def. #3 Florida State

Lady Bulldogs Upset Florida State in Second Round of NCAA Women's Basketball Tourney - Dawg Sports
Even though the Seminoles enjoyed a 45-36 advantage on the boards, the Bulldogs outscored FSU in the paint by a 22-18 margin and turned 19 Tribe turnovers into 26 Georgia points. The Red and Black bench outscored the Florida State reserves by a 15-8 tally.

Why it's surprising? FSU had statistical advantages in everything but turnover percentage entering the tournament.

Why it's not surprising? FSU had a negative turnover differential entering the tournament. Yesterday, Georgia outscored FSU 26-5 in points off turnovers.

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