FanPost

Ranking the Finals

Did you find the 2011 WNBA finals compelling?  Was it the best finals series ever?  The always reliable John Hollinger has given us a method to determine which series was the greatest ever!

Of course Hollinger's system was designed for the NBA, so we'll need to make some tweaks.  Let's look at the system...

First, I subtract five points for each game difference between winner and loser; in practice this puts every series somewhere between -5 and -20.

Second, I add points based on the round of the series. First-round series are worth 2 points, second-round 4, conference finals 8, and NBA Finals 16.

The WNBA has never had series longer than best of 5, so the difference will run from -5 to -15 for us.

Also, the WNBA has never had more than three rounds of playoffs, so there won't be any two point series.

Third, I add a third of a point for every game each team won in the regular season.

WNBA seasons are 34 games (shorter up to 2002).  To approximate this, we'll add 5/6 of a point for every game won by each team in the regular season.

Fourth, I subtracted the "adjusted" average scoring margin of each game in the series, and multiplied it by four to put greater emphasis on this aspect.

I say "adjusted" because I tweaked the scoring margins a bit to emphasize close games with great finishes as opposed to games that were only kinda sorta close. First, any margin greater than five points automatically becomes 13 -- whether it's six points or 40. Second, no overtime game can have a margin greater than five, even if one team pulled further away in the extra sessions. And third, any unplayed game gets a margin of 13. So if a best-of-seven series ends in six, I enter a "13" for Game 7.

No changes here.

Fifth, I add two points for every overtime. This and the five-point rule above are just enough to make virtually any overtime game equal or slightly superior to a one-point margin in regulation.

No changes here either.

Last, I do two things for upsets. First, I add two points for every game won by the team without home-court advantage. Second, I take the difference in wins between the two teams, square it, and then divide by 25. The squaring has the effect of emphasizing major upsets over relatively minor ones.

Again we have to adjust for the shorter length of the WNBA season.  To that end, we'll divide the square of the difference in wins by 10 instead of 25.  Also, teams from 2002 and before get their wins prorated to a 34 game season.

Before we start counting down the finals series, let's take a moment to mention the best series from earlier rounds.

The highest scoring first round series is the 2002 set between Houston and Utah, which comes in at at 19.  Three close games, a big upset (the Comets were four games better than the Starzz), and a double OT thriller in Game 2 all sounds great.  However, the enduring memory of this series is undoubtedly the collapse of referee Bill Stokes during the first  media timeout of the second half of Game 3.  Stokes was taken to the hospital and play was suspended for about a half hour.  He recovered, but never worked in the W again.

The highest scoring conference final is the 2008 Western Conference finals between San Antonio and Los Angeles, which rates a 16.  You may recall this as the one where Sophia Young hit the buzzerbeater at the end of Game 2 to save the Silver Stars season and force a decisive Game 3, which they won.  Actually, there's another conference final that also scores a 16, but it was nowhere near as exciting or memorable.  The 2001 Eastern Conference final between New York and Charlotte also scores a 16.  Every game was won by the road team and the games were all close because neither team could score.  It's mostly known for Game 3 being the lowest scoring playoff game in WNBA history, a 48-44 win by the Sting.  I promised Queenie that I wouldn't talk about this series, so let's move on.

The average WNBA finals scores just under 11 points.  While most earlier round playoff series score in the negative numbers, only four of the finals do so.  We'll start the countdown at...

15: 2011 Minnesota 3-0 over Atlanta  Score: -10

A three game sweep, with none of the games particularly close at the end, capped a playoff season with no really good series.  The only 2011 playoff series that had a positive number was the first round between Minnesota and San Antonio, which scored a 1.

14: 2008 Detroit 3-0 over San Antonio  Score: -9

No surprise that this one scores low.  The only reason it beats 2011 is that the Shock won two road games instead of one.  Unlike 2011, however, 2008 had great conference finals on both sides.  In addition to the western conference series mentioned above, the Eastern Conference Finals also had three close games including a two point Shock victory in Game 3.  That series scored at 13.  That makes 2008 one of only two seasons in which both conference finals were better than the finals.

13: 1997 Houston 1-0 over New York  Score: -5

Every "series" was one game the first year, and none of them were close.  It was great having a league, though.

12: 2001 Los Angeles 2-0 over Charlotte  Score: -3

2001 was the other season in which both conference finals were better than the finals.  In addition to the eastern conference series mentioned above, the Western Conference Finals was a three game affair between LA and Sacramento that featured the Sparks only home loss of the season and a one point win for them in Sacramento.  That series scored at 14.  The 2001 Finals consisted of two games in which the Sparks toyed with the Sting.  They could have won by whatever margin they desired.

11: 2002 Los Angeles 2-0 over New York  Score: 6

Everyone remembers Nikki Teasley hitting the shot at the end of Game 2 to put it away, but in truth the Sparks were never in much danger.  They'd already won Game 1 in in MSG and the Liberty hadn't won a road game in the playoffs.  Even if Teasley missed the game was tied and most likely goes to overtime, unless Lisa Leslie or Latasha Byears gets the tip in.

10: 2006 Detroit 3-2 over Sacramento  Score: 8

One of the ugliest five game series you'll ever see.  Only one game was close, and the Monarchs had an annoying tendency to go very long stretches without scoring.  In Game 4, they scored two points in the 4th quarter.  This was the first season using the 24 second shot clock, it had been 30 seconds in previous seasons.

9: 2000 Houston 2-0 over New York  Score 12

Even as a Comet fan I felt bad for New York after this one.  They were just not going to beat Cynthia Cooper.  Game 2 did go to overtime, thanks to Coop hitting a three in the closing seconds of regulation.  The Lib started fouling out in the extra time, and it was all over.

8: 2010 Seattle 3-0 over Atlanta  Score: 14

The least convincing sweep in the history of brooms.  Seattle won by 2, 3, and 3 points.  The gamer by Sue Bird in Game 1 was accomplished with the aid of what she called a "monstrous moving screen" from Lauren Jackson.  This is the highest scoring sweep among the finals.

7: 1999 Houston 2-1 over New York  Score: 18

The Shot from Teresa Weatherspoon at the end of Game 2 is the enduring image of this series, and rightly so as it was just about the only memorable thing that happened during it.  The Comets, and especially Cynthia Cooper, were too mentally tough and had been through too much to let that fluke phase them.  They came right out the next night and took care of business.

6: 2004 Seattle 2-1 over Connecticut  Score: 19

The first two games were close and exciting, especially Game 2's duel to the death between Nykesha Sales and Betty Lennox that ended with Sales missing a wide open three that would have won the series.  It winds up 6th because Game 3 was a snoozer.

5: 2009 Phoenix 3-2 over Indiana  Score: 19

Game 1 is the best WNBA game ever played.  Won by the Mercury 120-116 in overtime, it set a standard that the rest of the series couldn't possibly live up to.  Ultimately there was only one other close game in the series, Game 3 was a one-pointer, which lowers the score down to here.

4: 2007 Phoenix 3-2 over Detroit  Score: 20

How many times has a road team won a decisive Game 5 (or Game 3 before 2005) in the WNBA finals?  Points for you if you knew the answer is one.  The 2007 Mercury are the only team to triumph in a winner-take-all Finals game as the visitor.  Like 2009 there were only two close games, but the extra road win propels this series above the last two.

3: 2003 Detroit 2-1 over Los Angeles  Score 28

Everyone remembers Tweety Nolan hitting the three to give the Shock the lead for keeps late in Game 3.  For me, the play of the series and the best individual play in WNBA finals history was made a couple of minutes earlier.  With the Sparks leading 73-70 Nikki Teasley got a steal and had nothing between her and an easy layup.  The always feisty Elaine Powell ran her down from behind and knocked the ball out of her hands and out of bounds off Teasley's leg.  It didn't matter that Teasley was bigger, stronger, and faster than Powell.  Powell wanted the ball more than Teasley wanted the layup.  It was the finest example of hustle beating talent you'll ever see, it completely changed the momentum of the game, and it was unjustly overlooked when the WNBA was putting together its 15 greatest moments.

2: 2005 Sacramento 3-1 over Connecticut  Score: 29

This series should be more highly regarded than it is among WNBA fans.  It's the only finals to feature two teams with 25+ wins.  There were three close games, including overtime in Game 2 forced by Brooke Wyckoff's buzzerbeater in regulation.  So why does it get overlooked?  There are several reasons.  The shot clock was shortened the next season, leading to higher scoring games.  That made this series, dominated by Sacramento's White Line defense, seem ponderous.  Yolanda Griffith was the face of the franchise for the champs, and she was an older player at a time when younger fans were being brought into the league by exciting new talents like Diana Taurasi.  Plus, as a former ABL player, the WNBA was not thrilled at the prospect of Griffith being thrust into the spotlight.  The league never got behind the Monarchs like they did other champions, just like they never used Griffith in their marketing like they did other MVPs.  This was a really good series between two really good teams.

1: 1998 Houston 2-1 over Phoenix  Score: 29

Was there ever any doubt?  The Comets got severely tested by the Mercury.  Down a game and behind by a dozen in the second half of Game 2, the legend of Cynthia Cooper was born as she led The Comets to a 13-0 run to finally take a 63-62 lead with just over two minutes left in regulation.  The game eventually went into overtime, and as any good CometHead could tell you, overtime was Cooper-time.  1997 showed that Houston could win easy.  1998 showed that they could win hard.

 

That's what the math says.  The challenge now is to get the WNBA to sell DVDs of these series so people who haven't seen them all can judge for themselves.