Rookie of the Year voting trends

by pilight on Sep 1, 2010 1:41 PM EDT

No surprise that Tina Charles won ROY. It was the biggest no brainer award of the year. However, it does fit in the recent trend of ROY winners.

I don't mean the unanimous vote, that's rare. Only Candace Parker in 2008 had gotten the award unanimously before. The ROY vote is almost never close. Only once has it been decided by fewer than a dozen votes; in 1998 it was Tracy Reid 20, Korie Hlede 18, Ticha Penicheiro 7. Most often it's like last year's vote, a clear winner with one or two others distantly behind; Angel McCoughtry 30, DeWanna Bonner 9, Shavonte Zellous 2.

No, the trend I'm talking about is the award going to players selected at or near the top of the draft. There was no ROY award given in 1997. In the next six seasons, the award went to the #1 overall pick only once (1999 Chamique Holdsclaw). It went to players selected outside the top five picks twice (1998 Reid #7, 2000 Betty Lennox #6). In recent years it's been the opposite. Three straight, and four of the last five, have gone to #1 overall picks. Only one of the last nine has gone to a player selected outside the top three (2005 Temeka Johnson #5).

This suggests that WNBA GMs have gotten better at scouting and drafting. If I had to pinpoint a cause, I'd say it was the entrance of Bill Laimbeer into the league as GM of the Shock. He snagged 2003 ROY Cheryl Ford at #3 in his first draft, stole Kara Braxton at #7 two years later, and changed the way other GMs evaluated talent by killing them in lopsided trades (Elaine Powell, Plenette Pierson, Katie Smith, etc.).

NOTES: No #2 pick has won ROY, or seriously contended for the award. Reid at #7 in 1998 is the lowest pick to win.

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Comments

Interesting re Laimbeer

As for the #2 pick never winning ROY – not even after 2003 – I wonder if its that there simply aren’t two very evenly matched players available for the draft in a given year – the three years I’ve been following the game Parker and Charles were runaway consensus picks. Only with McCoughtry was there some dispute as to who should be the #1 pick.

by James Bowman on Aug 31, 2010 8:30 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed-

The recent #1 picks (and next year’s as well) have been no-brainers (though I have had multiple people tell me there were was some discussion about Fowles being the better player than Parker.

Have any of the past #1’s been similar? Hard to determine that in hindsight.

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by Nate Parham on Sep 1, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

obvious #1s

There were a few outliers who preferred Fowles to Parker, as there were for Beard over Taurasi and Pondexter or Young over Augustus. The overwhelming opinion was for the #1 pick as chosen in all those cases.

As for past picks…

1998 was painfully obvious. When you have someone 7’2, young, and with any skills at all, like Margo Dydek was, she’s going to go #1. The ABL snagging most of the top college talent from that draft made it that much more clear.

The suspense about #1 in 2001 was over as soon as Lauren Jackson announced she was coming. Lin Dunn explored some trade options, but was asking a very high price. If Tamika Catchings hadn’t blown her knee out late in the college season, she might have gotten some mention but Dunn made it clear early on that she was taking Jackson.

The debate in 2002 wasn’t about whether Bird would go #1, Seattle desperately needed a point guard, but whether she would be better than Swin Cash in the long run. I’d say the jury is still out on that.

The 2003 top pick was locked in before the college season started. LaToya Thomas was an amazing player at Mississippi State. Even now she’s probably better than some players who are on WNBA benches.

It’s typically the weak drafts, like 2000 and 2007, that generate the most debate about who should go #1.

by pilight on Sep 1, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions