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Quick Analysis: Tulsa trades Kara Braxton to Phoenix for Nicole Ohlde & 2011 First Round Pick

Braxton-2_medium
Photo by Ryan Malone

The Tulsa Shock have confirmed through a press release that the Kara Braxton for Nicole Ohlde and a 2011 first round pick trade that Freelantz reported last night.

Kara Braxton and Nicole Ohlde are essentially similar players...except Braxton is the better rebounder and scorer, while Ohlde has a higher assist rate and lower turnover percentage.

For the Mercury, acquiring Braxton is a double bonus -- not only do they get a more reliable post scorer to complement more perimeter oriented post players Candice Dupree and Tangela Smith, but also brings an arch nemesis to their side: during the four game season series against Phoenix just completed last night, Braxton 12.75 points on 62% shooting against Phoenix.

Mercury Shake Up Roster For Playoff Run, Ohlde Traded For Braxton - SB Nation Arizona
Gaines said this about Braxton after the teams played last week, "Forget all the fancy step-through - all that bullshit. She (Braxton) goes straight to the basket - which is a force - so we kind of have to watch out on her."

Not that they were going to see her again, but clearly they've addressed a need for some muscle in the post with this acquisition.

Star-divide

Braxton's biggest asset -- and perhaps the most important strength she brings to Phoenix -- is defensive rebounding. Braxton currently has a defensive rebounding percentage of 27% and has been among the top defensive rebounders in the league all season. For a Phoenix team that has been getting beaten on the offensive boards by nearly 8% -- among the highest differentials in the league -- having a center Braxton's size to help control the glass both helps them limit second chance points and trigger the fast break.

More subtly, Braxton's steal percentage of 4.4% places her in the elite among centers and the reason her average isn't higher could easily be attributed to the fact that she has had 10 less minutes a game than top center thieves. In addition, Braxton is reportedly in better shape than usual as a result of Nolan Richardson's rigorous workout regimen. As Phoenix looks to defend their title in the playoffs, Braxton might be something of an asset to bolster their post rotation.

As for Tulsa, we could certainly do a strict basketball analysis but that's clearly was not what this trade was about. The big prize in this trade for Tulsa was Phoenix's 2011 first round draft pick. At present, the Western Conference playoff picture is far from set and second place Phoenix would be below the last place New York Liberty in a draft order. Meaning Tulsa has acquired a potentially very valuable mid-first round draft pick. How valuable?

Here are players potentially available in the 2011 draft, aside from the highly touted Maya Moore:

Angie Bjorklund

Jessica Breland

Liz Cambage

Victoria Dunlap

Amber Harris

Ify Ibekwe

Jantel Lavender

Kat Nash

Kayla Pedersen

Ta'Shia Phillips

Chastity Reed

Danielle Robinson

Brittany Spears

Jasmine Thomas

Courtney Vandersloot

Danielle Wilson

You don't have to go through a deep analysis of all 16 of those prospects to get the point here: one could imagine that the first round (and into the second round) will have enough talent to make this type of trade (and the earlier Shavonte Zellous trade) worthwhile for Tulsa. And just as players may decline in their senior years, this list obviously does not include any players who might potentially emerge throughout the season. In other words, Tulsa has traded their way into possibly getting a young rotation player who fills any one of a number of needs as they try to build this team. This was undoubtedly a trade for the future.

Related Links:

Mercury Shake Up Roster For Playoff Run, Ohlde Traded For Braxton

Mercury Acquire Kara Braxton

Poll
Who "wins" this trade?
Phoenix Mercury
29 votes
Tulsa Shock
18 votes
Draw
6 votes
Depends on how far Phoenix gets in the playoffs...
11 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 3 comments |

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Hmm

Starting with 2005, here are the recent #7 picks in the draft:

2005 Kara Braxton (already had her; didn’t know what to do with her)

2006 Shona Thorburn (washed out after one disappointing season; team’s third-round pick played more than she did)

2007 Katie Gearlds (out of league; never seemed to be able to crack rotation)

2008 Essence Carson (full-time starter in 2009; fell off a cliff in 2010)

2009 Courtney Paris (out of league; will always have offers to try out for teams due to name factor and college/overseas success)

2010 Danielle McCray (injured)

If you decide to take a look at the best draft of last decade (2001), you’ll get Svetlana Abrosimova. Do we see a Svetlana Abrosimova in that draft? Possibly. Will she be available at #7? No.

I wouldn’t expect the 2011 #7 pick to be any better than most of the players listed above (they should all be better than Thorburn, however). Judging from that list, she could be worse. After the first four picks, I see mostly “late bloomers” and “reaches”, not a safe pick among the rest of that bunch. I have a hard time believing the #7 pick can be a rotation player ahead of anyone other than Jones (and I would still have to see it to believe it WRT said player receiving more minutes than Marion, who would have one year under her belt in the system).

The draft should be better than 2007, 2009, and 2010, but it will be worse than 2008 (which, thanks to some catastrophic injuries to stars and some players who have turned out to be “duds” (compared to their draft status), hasn’t been quite as good as advertised).

by just checkin on Jul 25, 2010 1:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Well... the better way to look at it is probably talent available...

GM’s screw up all the time… but that is independent of the fact that there will be quite a few reasonable options at #7… and we haven’t gone through the senior year yet, so someone among that bunch will improve (and, yes, decline)…

Can’t really pass judgment on McCray… and Paris has been in LA for weeks apparently, although I guess that never meant a signing was imminent…. Carson’s cliff could have a number of explanations not directly related to her ability…

SwishAppeal.com for women's basketball...SB Nation Seattle for Seattle sports. Twitter: @QMcCall3.

by Q McCall on Jul 25, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

"Can’t really pass judgment on McCray"

And I didn’t…I correctly labeled her “injured”. Even before her injury, she wasn’t Tamika Catchings, so I have no reason to believe she will come back from a serious knee injury and be a major impact player. I expect her to be better than Hightower has been this season, though.

Even if Courtney Paris was signed, it wouldn’t have meant that she’d be a sure-fire rotation player. Yes, I remember you and petrel gawking over her diamond rating a month or so ago, but if it had meant anything to Penny Toler Paris would be in a Sparks uni as we speak. Instead, they continue to hold on to the woefully untalented twig that is Chanel Mokango.

The point still remains that having the 7th pick in the draft—any draft that isn’t 2001—doesn’t mean much. The transition from college to pros is much tougher these days, and several of your “prospects” are lacking from a physical standpoint. After Maya Moore, there really isn’t anyone in this draft who can come in right away and start from Day 1. And after the first four picks, you don’t have (m)any sure-fire rotation players.

by just checkin on Jul 26, 2010 2:41 PM EDT reply actions  

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