Storm vs. Mercury: Statistical Summary...of Three Quarters
First, I realize that a summary of three quarters might smack of laziness.
However, it was a game in which the Storm were up 87-48 at the end of the third quarter leading both teams to empty the benches in the fourth. It just seems to make more sense to look at the first three quarters, especially since everyone on both sides seemed to acknowledge it was over by then.
"They played great," said Mercury coach Corey Gaines of the Seattle Storm's performance. "We made two runs at them to cut it to 5. They withstood those runs. They had a 10-0 spurt going into the half and they kinda closed the deal right there. We came out second half, they hit a three, 18. Lighting it up the rest of the night...It was just a bad game. It was a bad game. That happens."
No matter which side you look at this game from, it was pretty much over after three quarters, whether it be because of poor play from the Mercury or outstanding play from the Storm.
As a veteran team, Gaines said the Mercury know it's just one game and that there will be plenty of others, especially against a team like the Storm who Gaines said they will have to go through if they expect to repeat.
On the other side, there would seem to be a risk of complacency for the Storm with it starting to become apparent that the rest of the league is chasing them. However, they know as veterans too that it's still early in the season.
"I still think it's too early in the season," said Storm forward Lauren Jackson. "I really think every team is going to get better. I really want to be excited, but it's too early. It really is."
So before saying anything further, we can definitely say this: statistically, the Storm were more productive in three quarters tonight than they've been in any four quarters all season.
Storm statistical MVP: Sue Bird
Bird had 12 points and a season-high 11 assists for her first double-double of 2010 and 16th of her career in three quarters. More impressive might be that she did it without committing a turnover. Thus she had a pure point rating of 29.33. That's ridiculous.
Mercury statistical MVP: Candice Dupree
Dupree was just the most efficient player on the team with 10 points on 5-7 shooting through three quarters. As noted previously, part of that was a matter of both her and the team using her more as a face up and pick and roll threat rather than a post-up threat. She's much more effective in that capacity and if there's any bright spot to this game it's that she's acclimating to the team and the team to her, for whatever that's worth.
Key stat: Field goal percentage
I've said it before and the trend continued: the Storm outshot the Mercury 54.2% to 33.3% through three quarters. Early in the season, the vulnerability for this team was that they struggled from the field. Now with them shooting well, beating teams on the offensive glass (52%-27.3% through 3 quarters) and only turning the ball over 5% of the time, it's difficult for me to imagine how you might beat this team, especially at Key Arena.
"I don't see them losing another game the rest of the season really," said Mercury wing Diana Taurasi. "They're really good right now. They've got a lot of people doing a lot of good things and they look really good."
Of course, every team has off nights as the Dream and Mercury claimed against the Storm and the Silver Stars and Sparks could easily claim as well since the Storm had an off-game against the Sky and "woke up". However, at what point do you stop saying teams are having off nights against the Storm by coincidence?
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I can safely say this
The examples used in the article weren’t “off nights” (and I don’t think you were arguing that they were, Q, so much as the respective teams were arguing this). Seattle lost to Chicago, and the Sky have gone on to win three more after that (including two on the road). They are coming together at the right time and have a legit MVP candidate (Fowles) leading the way. Since that loss, Seattle has stomped San Antonio, Atlanta, LA (for a half), and Phoenix since losing to the Sky. Those weren’t “off nights” by the teams involved.
Atlanta has major issues that are being covered up by size inside and speed on the perimeter. Put this team in a half-court game and they’re toast. Indiana WILL win the season series with the Dream, as they would have won the first game if not for a crappy 4th quarter offense. Look for Chicago to also win the season series against Atlanta and for Washington to win at least two games. Look at some of the teams that Atlanta has defeated: San Antonio (bad team), Phoenix (bad team), and LA (bad “team”). They are what they are—better than three bad teams but clearly not in Seattle’s stratosphere.
San Antonio is terrible. The lack of a true head coach and decent youth could really sink this team. They have a young center in Appel and a relatively young Young (27 in December), but what else? Crystal Kelly? Should be dumped for a young guard. In fact, this team only has four guards total—and only one of those guards is under 30 (Hodges, which isn’t a good sign—she’s turning 28 this year anyway). Becky is 33 and obviously she’s the one to keep for a couple more seasons (despite the injury). Helen will turn 32 in August. Edwige is 31. Why keep both? Neither is going to improve more than a 25-year-old could, and continuity among them has gotten this team nowhere (unless you consider going from the Finals in 2008 to 15-19 in 2009 “somewhere”). Oh wait a minute—they had a young guard on the roster, who they traded away to get Crystal Kelly. Wow.
Phoenix is bad, and that’s something I’ve echoed all season long. They lost to Minnesota for crying out loud!!!!!! This team has a leader whose head is elsewhere at the moment, a sidekick who’s mentally fatigued beyond repair, and a coach who’s little more than an overrated systems guy. The bench, outside of Bonner, is awful, and the team does not play any meaningful defense. With Taurasi shooting in the 30s, they aren’t going to win many games. As I’ve said before, they miss Cappie more than they thought they would.
LA is piss poor. Their only PG worth a darn is injured, and there isn’t a defensive-minded center available to them that could take the pressure off Parker. They look lost on the court half the time—until they realize they’re about to lose yet another game. Jen Gillom is an awful head coach—another one who doesn’t realize the significance of playing defense. Minnesota happily let her walk. Does anyone not see a problem with this (of course, they might’ve found an even worse coach to replace her, but I digress)?
When you look at it this way, it’s not a stretch to say that Seattle is head and shoulders above the rest of this mess.
You're right - I'm definitely with you
…if everybody you play claims to have an off night…then maybe you’re just good…? :)
Right now — and I won’t rule out any of these other teams coming together as Jackson suggested — they are just clearly the best of the West…it’s hard to extend that league-wide given that the Sky game is looking like less of a fluke and the Fever are getting back to championship form fast..
It will be interesting to see how they do against the Sky at home and a gelling Fever..
SwishAppeal.com, women's basketball...covered SBN-style... twitter: @qmccall3
I agree, Seattle best in West
I think Seattle is going to come out of the West this year. While the other teams probably will get better as the season wears on, I don’t think they will improve enough to beat Seattle.
Regarding Phoenix, they won last year by outscoring their opponents, not with their defense. Without Cappie (or a Cappie replacement), they just can’t find a way to put enough points on the board. Without Cappie, opponents can focus their defense on the other starters, who except for Bonner and to some extent Taurasi, aren’t athletic enough to create open looks. This is starting to look like a total rebuilding project to me.
Well, while it's true that the Merc are not known for their defense...
…last night’s was exceptionally poor.
There was one play where Le’coe found herself more wide open in the lane than I think she ever expected to be in a pro game and held the ball looking for someone to pass to, probably expecting someone to come defend her. She held the ball for a full 1.5 seconds (easily) with the crowd already yelling to shoot it before she made the move for the uncontested layup…
The Storm had their way with whatever D the Merc threw out there, but what was also interesting is that they seemed to do better in man2man than zone/rover and I wasn’t sure why they switched away from man given that they were still in the game with it….
SwishAppeal.com, women's basketball...covered SBN-style... twitter: @qmccall3
"Regarding Phoenix, they won last year by outscoring their opponents, not with their defense."
That’s true, but they were a teensy bit more active on defense last year than this year. Remember, Dupree is supposed to be their defensive ace. Where is she?
But everything else you’ve said is why I didn’t really hold Phoenix in high regard this year. You can’t just go from Cappie and Dee on the perimeter to Penny and Dee because Penny is not a dynamic shot creator. When Temeka Johnson struggled last year with her decision-making or due to a size mismatch (like against January in the Finals last year), Corey could move Cappie to the 1, Dee to the 2, and bring in Penny at the three. This year, he’s forced to use Swanier at the 1 when Meek is ineffective, and that’s just not going to cut it. It’s not just because Ketia isn’t Cappie, either. It’s because she lacks the offensive creativity that most WNBA lead guards have. Her incredible speed is negated by her indecisiveness and below average court vision. This is her third season, and she should be a lot better than she is given her pedigree and her athletic abilities. I do think Phoenix needs Cappie (obviously), but because that’s no longer an option, they do need a Tan White/Shavonte Zellous/Armintie Price/Coco Miller/Erin Thorn type who can either come in and score or help run the team. Heck, even a Matee Ajavon type might work in Phoenix! Renee Montgomery would’ve been a perfect fit. And if Kristi Toliver wasn’t so insistent upon being a star, she would have worked well in Phoenix as a back-up combo guard.
Phoenix is missing this back-up combo guard. The organization might think highly of Swanier and I suppose that’s fine, but she really can’t be the 7th or 8th player in the rotation and this be considerered a good team. Plus, she’s not a combo guard—she’s a defensive-minded PG. It seems like most of the “good” to "decent’ teams have a back-up combo guard in addition to a second-string true PG, with the combo guard higher in the rotation than the true point on most nights.
And actually in the two games she’s played, I think Lilley’s looked very good. Any chance she skips ahead of Swanier in the rotation?
Depends on how Lilley looks in practice
From what I understand, she’s not outperforming Swanier in practice.
What are we talking about? We talking about PRACTICE! :)
by just checkin on Jun 7, 2010 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I've suggested Latta to Phoenix in the past many times
It hasn’t happened. I’m convinced that it won’t happen—at least not this season. And the more I see her play, the more I’m convinced she won’t be a good enough fit.
And if I’m Latta, I don’t sign with anyone this season because I’m already on the last year of the rookie scale contract. I work on my PG skills overseas, earn a training camp contract with a team that’s a good fit, arrive to camp ON TIME, and try to make a team.
by just checkin on Jun 7, 2010 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Box Score Stats Question
There are a couple of entries on the box score that I can’t figure out, and I thought one of you would probably know. The entries in question are the +/- number and BA. I can’t see much correlation between the +/- number and the other stats, but I’m sure there is one. Thanks.
Here you go:
Plus/minus from Kevin Pelton of StormTracker.com:
http://www.wnba.com/storm/news/stats101.html
It’s not based on the numbers players put up, but the changes in the team’s score. So theoretically, you could have a high plus minus without recording one box score stat.
(Addendum: plus/minus stats are tricky to read because they depend on teammates. So players coming in for stars like Sue Bird, Candace Parker, Jackson, or Cappie Pondexter are just going to have lower plus/minus numbers because it’s difficult to impact the game more than players that good. Conversely, a star on a bad team who has a negative plus/minus could just be penalized for playing most of the minutes when a team loses because they’re needed just to stay in the game. Bench players with high plus minuses could be rewarded for playing against other weak benches. So normally, it’s a number that’s good for sorting out the best of the best at the end of the season and looking at who might have helped/underperformed in a game. But it’s not very good for determining “the best player”…or at least that’s my interpretation off the top of my head…others can feel free to chime in…)
BA is “blocks against” or how many times a player’s shot was blocked.
SwishAppeal.com, women's basketball...covered SBN-style... twitter: @qmccall3
You can keep up with plus/minus stats here:
http://www.wnba.com/lynx/stats/net_plus_minus.html
I think it helps to look at who falls where and how things change over the season. Sue Bird is perennially at the top of the league.
SwishAppeal.com, women's basketball...covered SBN-style... twitter: @qmccall3
"Sue Bird is perennially at the top of the league."
Well, not exactly. In 2006 (+5.1) and even 2007, she was well off first place. Actually, it’s no surprise that she’s been at the top the following couple of years considering Agler took over after the 2007 season.
Yes, I should not have said perennially..
Because I meant since 2008 since I first started paying attention to the numbers :)
SwishAppeal.com, women's basketball...covered SBN-style... twitter: @qmccall3

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