2010 WNBA Preseason Review: "An attempt to predict the past."

Today, training camp for the WNBA begins. At least, it begins in Atlanta, your mileage may very. With a flood of players in camp - some teams list as many as twenty "campers" the last time I looked - the 2010 WNBA season is very close to its debut and it's time to start thinking about where teams will end up when the dust has settled.

Predicting is a fun game, but this early in the year predictions shouldn't be taken very seriously. Nobodies have breakout years; superstars get injured. Players with atypically excellent seasons "regress to the mean", or return to their average output. All kinds of unexpected things happen - players can get arrested, have deaths in the family, etc. and a team's win or loss record can hinge on the presence of absense of a player for even a single game. Teams build up winning streaks and ride on momentum; teams suffer losing streaks and seem trapped by self-induced mental pressures.

One statistician put it best when he said that pre-season predictions were "an attempt to predict the past."

The win-loss records projected for each team are based on Adjusted Win Scores for the entire training camp roster - for rookies, the score is based on the average rookie-year AWS for their draft position. (Why Adjusted Win Score? Because it has the highest correlation with winning games.)

For each player on the training camp roster, a simple attempt was made to project their 2010 production based on the previous two or three years of play. Even so, it seems that with every new trade or training camp roster acquisition, the numbers change daily. Furthermore, for players who have missed years due to injuries, I've had to make best guesses - after a few attempts, the effort is less hard science and more the reading of entrails.

With new acquisitions, with people entering and exiting camp, my picks are changing almost daily. Ask me in a week, and the numbers could be completely different.

Eastern Conference

New York Liberty

Projection: 19-15

This year's Liberty will be better than last year's Liberty: how could they not be? Furthermore, they have Anne Donovan at the helm - for one year, anyway, before she takes off for Seton Hall. However, I had New York floating around fourth place in the Eastern Conference unless they could somehow saw Janel McCarville in half and make two players out of her.

Janel McCarville. Nicole Powell. Cappie Pondexter from Phoenix. And now, they've just added Taj McWilliams, who might be the missing piece that New York has been looking for, providing rebounding power and the undefinable "mental toughness". Granted, Taj McWilliams's palm started glowing red a long time ago, but McWilliams has figured out some secret of beating the clock. With that group of players, could the New York Liberty pull the next "worst to first" in WNBA history? There's definitely a core of players that could carry any WNBA team a long distance. Those four players are about the equal of the Bird/Jackson combo in Seattle, if one is thinking of a threshhold of talent that is enough to guarantee a WNBA playoff appearance based on a few players. New York has enough to get to the playoffs and there's not going to be much difference between the #4 spot and the #1 spot in the East.

There is the outside possibility - a weak one - that Kia Vaughn could turn it around after a disappointing rookie season. I wouldn't bet money on that, though. Furthermore, New York has a very weak bench, meaning that the playoff hopes of the Liberty depend on four women, one of which is one of the oldest players in the W. However, if you're going to make the prediction game interesting, you can't follow conventional wisdom. If they don't win the regular season, a playoff spot somewhere shouldn't be surprising.

Indiana Fever

Projection: 18-16

Last year, the Fever proved that what they needed wasn't Tamika Catchings or Tully Bevilaqua. What the Fever needed was Lin Dunn, the coach who should have been named Coach of the Year last year.

Dunn is Indiana's secret weapon, and the perfect folksy coach for a city that is desperate for a basketball championship of any kind. I don't think that the Fever are going to sneak up on anyone this year, and Chicago still has that potential for the big breakout year. I also don't think that the Fever are that deep beyond their starting rotation. But think about it: Catchings, Bevilaqua, Douglas, Sutton-Brown - those are the kind of players a coach would want to have and Lin Dunn can do a lot with good players. 18-16 doesn't sound like much of a finish, but the West is pretty damned strong and Indiana is likely to regress. Even with the regression expect the Fever to make it to the conference championship - and possibly, another WNBA Finals.

Chicago Sky

Projection: 18-16

The Sky is an ensemble piece that could be even better than expected if Sylvia Fowles decides to show up for an entire season. Fowles has been amazing the last couple of years, and that's when she was healthy enough to play, but now the surrounding cast for Fowles and Jia Perkins looks even more interesting.

The amazing three-way trade between Phoenix, New York and Chicago in 2010 ended up putting Shameka Christon in a Chicago Sky uni. Will she be the equivalent of Candice Dupree? No. Will she be a decent acquisition? Yes. Another interesting acquisition is Courtney Paris, who played quite well for the Monarchs when she did play - Paris was a project that was brought along slowly and we could see even more of Paris this year.

I suspect that everyone's eyes will be on Epipphany Prince, the Rutgers player who forewent her final year at Rutgers to play in Europe for a year. Doing well in Turkey won't impress anyone, but Prince is a young player with a lot of upside. Cathrine Kraayeveld will be a good addition, and maybe Tamera Young will finally turn it around this year.

The X-factor in this equation is Steven Key. Key seems incapable of keeping the same five players on the floor for more than a few minutes at a time, and he might spoil the 2010 Chicago Sky's chemistry. I'm sure he knows he can't have another season of disappointment - his job might depend on it - but the fact is that this team can achieve if it's coached well. I'm depending on Big Syl to finally play 30+ games and possibly lead the Sky to home field advantage in a weak Eastern Conference.

Atlanta Dream

Projection: 15-19

The success of the Atlanta Dream rests on the backs of three players: Sancho Lyttle, Erika de Souza, and Angel McCoughtry.

The rest of the league finally recognizes how good Lyttle and de Souza are, and they'll be ready - but even prepared, I think that either one or both will end up in a (theoretical) All-Star uniform. The problem is that both Lyttle and de Souza have played a lot of Euroball and you have to wonder how fresh those players are. Marynell Meadors doesn't seem to be worried, but I think everyone else is.

A couple of X-Factors are Chamique Holdsclaw and Shalee Lehning. We were treated to a few brief flashes of brilliance from The Claw last year at Philips Arena, but if Holdsclaw struggles with injuries again many are going to conclude that the Claw is done. (Good thing McCoughtry can step into that role.) Lehning suffered a serious shoulder injury at the end of last season and you have to worry if she can come back. The well-deserved knock on Lehning is that Lehning Can't Score, but the team seems to respond well to Lehning playing quarterback.

Who would I look for outside the obvious? Maybe Armintie Price. However, I think that the Dream are destined to regress to the mean in 2010.

Connecticut Sun

Projection: 11-23

Mike Thibault has won a few coaching awards, and now we're going to learn whether he's a genius or we're just kidding ourselves: he has purchased the proverbial pig in a poke. It's a good thing that the Sun are attached to the Mohegan, because Thibault went straight to the roulette table and went all in.

Either Tina Charles is going to be a great player in the WNBA, or she isn't. Either she's going to capture that UConn Huskies chemistry with Renee Montgomery, or she isn't. Either Anete Jekabsone-Zogota will adjust to the W, or she won't. If the little ball lands in the slot, Thibault walks away with a pile of loot. But giving up Lindsey Whalen for that? Realllllly? I'll probably be proven wrong, but I suspect that Thibault is going to walk out of the casino with nothing but a barrel and suspenders.

Washington Mystics

Projection: 11-23

"Oh Pet, why are you so hard on the Mystics?" Hey, last year I projected the Mystics to win, what, six games? It made Washington management so angry (I wish) that they headed to the playoffs just to spite me. Mystics fans, maybe another prediction of bottom-dwelling will guarantee extra playoff success.

One X-Factor for the Mystics: Jacinta Monroe. My suspicion is that Monroe is going to be quite good. With Alana Beard out for the season, everyone else is going to have to crank it up a notch and I think that Monroe is capable of the increased responsibility.

I look at everything else though - Matee Ajavon, Nikki Blue, Nakia Sanford - and I just end up shaking my head. (How come Sanford hasn't learned to hit a free throw?) Last year's playoff appearance is a testimony to Julie Plank's skills as a coach, but you usually don't go wrong betting on a sub-par year for Washington. They have Katie Smith, but a team can't rest on one player and unless Marissa Coleman wakes up, it will be a disappointing season.

Western Conference

Phoenix Mercury

Projection: 24-10

For those who hoped that Phoenix would lose a step with the subtraction of Cappie Pondexter and the loss of cap space, my answer is that you're probably wrong. This is a team that has won two of the last three WNBA championships, and they have Diana and you don't.

I mean...good Lord. Do I have to take the Almighty's name in vain again? Good Lord! Diana Taurasi. Penny Taylor, theoretically for a whole year. Candice Dupree, (theoretically) happy in Phoenix. DeWanna Bonner, who could have been Rookie of the Year Last Year? Tell me, WNBA, how are you going to stop all of that?

I'm not saying that we should just mail the trophy to Phoenix and all go out to the bumper car track - the West is stacked this year. Minnesota and Seattle haven't gone anywhere, and they will fight. But last year, Phoenix showed the world how the women's game should be played - high scoring and high skilled. With Tangela Smith and Temeka Johnson ready to pick up any slack, Phoenix is a team ready to repeat. They might be a little thin in the bench, but Phoenix has so many weapons that I can't see them not repeating, unless Diana Taurasi can't find a designated driver.

Minnesota Lynx

Projection: 24-10

Oh, Minnesota Lynx. How you burned me last year when I projected a WNBA Finals appearance. And I am not the only one you've burned - you've been burning the faithful in Minneapolis for many, many years now.

Do you remember the story of that really talented kid in high school who you thought was going to be president, and you learn that ten years later she's a waitress at the Burger Barn out on Route Seven? That, my friends, is the story of the Lynx written large. It is a team with a crapload of potential that never gets it together. A room full of explosives, and no one with a match for miles around.

If you can't win games with Nicky Anosike - a pleasant surprise with a stellar season in 2009 - and with Lindsey Whalen and Rebekah Brunson, then what the hell are you doing in the WNBA? If you're not winning games, then you're stealing money. If Seimone Augustus can get her health together, you have a group that can rival the Phoenix Mercury.

The problem is that the Mercury have passion, and the Lynx...well, I don't know what the Lynx have. No one knows, not even the Lynx. (Answer "Rashanda McCants" and I'll clock you.) But hope springs eternal. This year will be the year that the Lynx finally get it together and mock everyone else, and I'll believe that until we're eight games in and the Lynx are resting at 2-6.

Seattle Storm

Projection: 20-14

As long as the Storm have Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird, they will contend for a playoff position. Hey, if a WNBA team just had either of those players, they'd contend. Having both guarantees that the Storm will always be scribbled in somewhere in the post-season.

What keeps the Storm from the top, though? The first thing is an absence of really dominant players beyond those two. Le'Coe Willingham and Tanisha Smith are no slouches, but who else will pick up the team? Loree Moore might prosper being in Seattle. Camille Little looks slim and trim and might get the WNBA to stand up and take notice.

Another problem is that coach Brian Agler likes to give his starters a lot of minutes - I think last year he depended on the same seven players game after game after game. The advantage is that staying away from the bench keeps your best on the floor a lot; the disadvantage is the wear and tear. I predict that somewhere along the way, someone on the Storm will get hurt, and that will keep Seattle out of home field advantage in the first round.

San Antonio Silver Stars

Projection: 19-15

Usually, when you're a new coach, what you get are a bunch of talentless bums - those bums are the reason why the old coach isn't hanging around. For new head coach Sandy Brondello, she can't say that the cupboard was bare when she took the job - but the West is very competitive and San Antonio is left to try to put something together beyond Sophia Young and Becky Hammon.

One X-Factor will be the arrival of Michelle Snow to the Silver Stars. Snow has been one of those players that has been a disappointment, and Atlanta basically let Snow go away for nothing. Then again, maybe Meadors and Snow were a volatile combination, as Meadors trusts her players about as much as Steven Key does. Snow should shine, and without Ann Wauters, she'd better shine.

Beyond Snow, who else? Maybe Roneeka Hodges. Maybe Edwige Lawson-Wade will have a great season. Other than that I don't see the Silver Stars moving beyond fourth place in the West.

Los Angeles Sparks

Projection: 16-18

There will be a lesson learned here - Lisa Leslie is very hard to replace and the era when both Leslie and Parker roamed the courts together is over. Parker is still the superstar of the Sparks, but I look at the rest of the team and I just don't see very much there.

Tina Thompson? Age is already catching up with her. Betty Lennox? A locker room breakdown waiting to happen. Shannon Bobbitt? Yes, exactly. Tisha Penicherio might be the greatest disher of anyone to play in the W, but she's not going to be a replacement for Lisa Leslie.

If Los Angeles is going to contend against the teams listed above them, Parker is going to have to have a season like her 2008 tilt. Then, of course, the Lynx could melt down again and that would boost the Sparks into another post-season appearance. Los Angeles is not better than the Mercury and really, if they're better than the Storm or the Silver Stars, it's not by much.

Tulsa Shock

Projection: 9-25

Poor Tulsa. When they got the Shock to jump over from Detroit, I'm sure that Cameron and Box thought they might bring a title to Tulsa in their very first season. No one thought much of Detroit last year, but they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals on sheer momentum.

How much can change in a year! Deanna Nolan has gone AWOL and odds are, she's decided she's rather have rubles than dollars. Katie Smith has gone to Washington. Cheryl Ford? Will Cheryl Ford play this year?

That leaves Tulsa depending on Plenette Pierson's injured shoulder and not much else. Nolan Richardson is a great coach, but he isn't God, and I think you'd need a God-like coach to make something out of the collection of spare parts (Marion Jones!) that has been assembled under the glorious name of the Shock. Essentially, Richardson is coaching an expansion team and they're going to play like an expansion team. I suspect that anyone on that roster could get cut before the year is over - Richardson might even walk away from the disaster in the making. There's just too little talent in Tulsa for too tough a division. Now if Tulsa had remained in the East....