When discussing the WNBA, its health and the issues it faces, most arguments are couched in positive terms.  "The WNBA is doing great/doing okay/healthier than expected."  Rarely is an argument couched in negative terms, i. e. "The WNBA is *not* a failure."  Such arguments would be seen by the WNBA fanbase as an attempt to address arguments that the WNBA *is* a failure, and would be seen as accepting the failure argument on its own terms - a real no-no among WNBA fans.

So how can you determine the health of a league?  Should you listen to what Donna Orender tells you, or Bill Simmons?  My answer is "no", because each of those parties has a vested interest in the outcome.  Is there an objective way to determine the health of a league?  And if so, does the WNBA pass the test?

My idea was to create something of a hurricane scale:  "the WNBA is sunny/cloudy/stormy/blowing out to sea".  I don't have an objective metric, but I have something of the idea of one, sketched out in the argument below.  Perhaps, the items below can be scored somehow and bundled into a Swish Appeal metric.

Where did I get the ideas for these items?  By looking at failed leagues, particular the American Basketball Association (ABA) in its 1970s and modern incarnations.  Many of the danger indicators below were issues in both leagues.  One of those leagues merged with the NBA; the other barely hangs on to life.

Here are my proposed signs that a league is failing. 

1.  Loss of league television contract/lack of league television contract. - According to the American public, if you can't get on TV, you're nobody.  With hundreds of cable channels, you become supernobody if you can't get on local public access.

2.  A team failing to finish the season. - That's not just a sign of an undercapitalized franchise, it's a sign that the league is out of the loop regarding the finances of its own teams.  Usually the death knell of a league. 

3.  Players complaining about not being paid. - Once again, this indicates instability.

4.  Teams needing to play regular season games in venues other that their home court. - It indicates that their rented arenas are unhappy with what the team pays in rent costs; another sign that franchises are undercapitalized.

5.  Decrease in total number of players per team. - Implies that franchises have to lighten the financial load because they're taking on water.

6.  Total attendance per game. - This indicates how much money is coming in through the gate, if the figures can be trusted.

7.  Percentage of games broadcast on radio/TV (internet). - This indicator either takes the pulse on outside interest in the league, or indicates that the league has money to spend putting its games online.

8.  Media covering league per game.  This indicates local interest, and how well a team is able to get out its "message".

9.  Sponsors per team. - This indicates that local advertisers find benefit in being associated with the team.

10.  Merchandise sales per team. - This indicates how strongly fans associate with their individual franchises - whether their commitments are "hard" or "soft".

Note that I didn't state what others might see as bad signs:

Relocations - Teams relocate all the time.

League decreases in size.  - A resized league might be healthier than an oversized one.  Likewise, the addition of a new franchise is not always the sign of a healthy league.

Changes in league front office. - Once again, these changes might be for the better.  The argument is that "rats know when to leave a sinking ship" but the counter argument is, "so, show me your rat detector".

Ticket giveaways. - There is an argument that it is not good to give away a lot of tickets.  Fans might expect giveaways in the future.  Then again, the giveaways might create fans, so who is to say if this is a bad sign?  If franchises give away tickets frequently, it might be a bad sign.

Mentorship/assistance by a larger league. - Many detractors argue, "If the WNBA weren't propped up by the NBA, it would be a failure." The argument could be made, however, that any such patronship - if it exists - is a positive thing.  I'll bet Major League Soccer wishes that it had such a powerful patron.

So let's look at the WNBA:

1.  The WNBA has a television contract.  It doesn't have much of one - I think less than a handful of games were shown on the "big three" networks.  However, the WNBA was shown on a weekly basis on ESPN, and the league games were useful in filling time slots on WNBA-TV.  The ratings of ESPN games have risen this year, which might lead ESPN to look favorably on a future contract.

2.  No WNBA team has ever folded in mid-season.  Even the old American Basketball League didn't have a team bow-out mid-season.

3.  I have never heard in any way, shape, or form of players not being paid or complaining about late payment.  This one is a non-issue.

4.  This has occasionally happened in the WNBA - I remember Hilton Koch's Houston Comets team playing its final game in 2008 in San Marcos, Texas, but that was due to Hurricane Ike.  Someone more knowledgeable than me might know of regular season games being played at odd venues - the New York Liberty played a promotional game outdoors last year at Arthur Ashe - but it appears to be a rare occurance.

As for playoff games being moved, I don't really count playoff games.  Other sports have moved playoff games as well.

5.  This is a serious sign, but then again, it might simply be related to the awful economy and the WNBA has had to pinch pennies.  There are two parties arguing about this:  one party argues that fewer roster spots has increased the quality of play; another party argues that the new 11-player roster makes success contingent upon lack of injury.

6.  This is a real concern.  Everyone knows that the WNBA's stated attendance figures don't match asses in seats.  However, there's a counter-argument.  Suppose someone pays for a season ticket but doesn't show up.  The current rule is to count these missing fans as attendees - they paid for their seat, therefore in a sense it doesn't matter if they have a physical presence or not.  However, there seem to be more "ghost fans" this year than in previous years. 

There is also the concern that some attendance figures might be outright lies.  I have heard this voiced, but I have no proof for it.  I suspect that attendance is "fabricated" from the ghost fans/missing season ticket holders and tickets given away but not used.  I don't think anyone is simply making up numbers; the numbers are real but you might disagree with the formula.

7.  This was a major plus for the WNBA this year.  This year, the WNBA rolled out WNBA Live Access.  Every single game the WNBA played this year could be found on the internet, with the exception of games played at San Antonio.  Furthermore, these games were streamed live (with the resulting technical glitches, of course.)  Live Access is a major investment in the league's future; games could be seen by fans that had no access to upper-level cable or local radio.

8.  Hmm.  It seems that games are covered at least by the Associated Press, so you can guarantee at least one media person per game.  Some teams like Connecticut and Seattle have a beat writer from the major newspaper in town.  Other teams like Atlanta seemingly have no media coverage, or sporadic media coverage from the local paper at best (in Atlanta, the sports reporters have dedicated blogs where they continually mock the WNBA.)  Trust me, I've seen some cases where there might be only one other media person/independent blogger at a Dream game outside of the AP person.

9.  Two more big feathers in the WNBA's cap.  Lifelock partnered up with Phoenix and Farmer's Insurance partnered up with Los Angeles.  I'm hearing that each team paid seven figures for jersey advertising - each of those companies has its logo prominently on the front of the jersey.  Purist moaned that the logos obscure the city/team names but WNBA fans don't see to care about that.

It is believed that those deals have put Phoenix and Los Angeles in the black.  Kroger is also assisting the Indiana Fever this year.

10.  There are no figures from the WNBA on merchandise sales per team.  The numbers from the WNBA Store in New York touted by the league?  I'd be very suspicious of those.  I've been to the WNBA Store in New York and a small corner of retail space is devoted to the WNBA, and the merchandise is limited to the point that three jerseys sold could mean a 1 percent increase in total sales.

So what is my subjective answer regarding the health of the WNBA? 

Using my hurricane scale, I would say that the weather is "hazy".  It could certainly be better, but then again, it could be much much worse.  To stretch the analogy further, my advice would be to go sailing and not worry about a sudden squall.