A Few WNBA Finals Thoughts

by Scotter on Sep 28, 2009 2:32 AM EDT Comment 4 comments

The Mercury are averaging roughly the same amount of points in the regular season and the playoffs (92.8 vs. 93.5) I looked at the Mercury regular season performance and realized that the Mercury's scoring improvement from 2008 to 2009 was coming from an increased pace, rather than increased offensive efficiency. The playoffs have been the opposite of that. The Mercury have averaged 9 fewer offensive possessions in the playoffs, but have been scoring the same amount of points because the team's offensive efficiency has been unreal in the playoffs, jumping from a league leading 1.06 points a per possession to an incredible 1.19 points per possession. However, the Mercury did give up a very high 1.11 points per poss on defense, up from 1.03 in the regular season.
There's no other way to frame this other than offense vs. defense on the team level. While the Mercury are scoring 1.19 points per poss and giving up 1.11 in the playoffs, the Fever are close to their regular season averages. The Fever are only scoring 0.96 points per poss, but they're also only giving up 0.94 points per poss as compared to scoring 0.97 and giving up 0.92 in the regular season. Both teams have actually played a similar pace in the playoffs with the Mercury averaging less than 2 more poss/g minutes than the Fever.
The two teams in the WNBA Finals were both out rebounded in the playoffs and the regular season. Both have been much more active on the offensive glass in the playoffs than the regular season, Who controls the boards in this matchup?
In the matchup of the league's best defensive and offensive players, Catchings and Taurasi have been equally important to their team in the playoffs. The best player for their team both offensive and defensively by a wide margin. Each has scored a quarter of their team's points and handed out a quarter fo their team's assists in the playoffs, and also led their team in rebounding. What's unique about this matchup is that where each player's team needs them the most is not on the side of the ball where they are the best in the league. Catchings has been THE key offensive player for the Fever in the playoffs, the only really efficient scorer. Catchings's offensive efficiency has been 1.15 points per poss in the playoffs, none of the other 6 players that have played more than 35 minutes in the playoffs has done better than January's 1.02 points per poss. Catchings has finished her 2 point FGA, shooting 58% after only 41% in the regular season, reached the FT line at an incredible rate of 2 FT/ 3FGA, led the team in assists, and crashed the offensive boards. This is an enormous improvement over her regular season performance, and without it the Fever would have been out of the playoffs by now. Taurasi's offensive performance has also been up across the board by a significant margin in the playoffs, but Taurasi's offensive efficiency doesn't stand out on the Mercury the way Tamika's does. Taylor, Bonner, Smith, and Willingham have all produced at least 1.23 points per poss. Where Diana Taurasi is truly indenpensable to the Mercury is on defense. She's the team's best weakside help defender (The most blocks by a player shorter than 6'4" this season), their most physical and most versatile defender, and a key defensive rebounder on a team without great rebounding posts.

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Comments

good write up

with all that said. hopefully we can shut her down. and try 2 make the other players score….. im hoping for a PHX merc victory

PHX_CHAW

by phxchaw on Sep 28, 2009 3:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great stuff Scotter!

if at any point you have specific questions for either team just let me know or email me at phoenixstan AT gmail.com

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Sep 28, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice analysis, Scotter.

I like the point you made about Catchings and Taurasi being needed on the side of the ball they’re not known for being good at.

While Catchings points/possession (and TS%/eFG%) numbers look solid for the playoffs, her shot selection from the field really hasn’t been (especially in the Detroit series) and the turnovers definitely put a damper on her offensive production as well. I would be hesitant to say that this offense hinges solely on Catchings — instead, I would make a broader argument that their offensive success hinges on their ability to attack the basket rather than settling for perimeter shots. They are at their best as a team when they have players penetrating and kicking or creating easy shots under the basket.

Also, the only reason I stay away from framing this as merely a offense vs. defense matchup is because the Fever were not far below average offensively this regular season.

While they don’t have a lot of scorers, they do have a diversity of scoring options — Catchings from almost anywhere (though she is not a particularly efficient offensive player), but also players from long range, mid-range, in the post, and off the drive. They are not a great shooting team, but they can find ways to score and are thus one of the more balanced offenses in the league, though certainly not necessarily dangerous.

SwishAppeal.com, women's basketball...covered SBN-style... twitter: @qmccall3

by Q McCall on Sep 28, 2009 8:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you're being too hard on Catchings offensively. Is she a consistent finisher or shooter? No.

Does she make a lot of poor offensive decisions? Yes. Does she compensate for that in other areas when you look at the whole offensive picture? Yes. She has always gotten to the FT line at such a strong rate throughout her career that she still posts good TS%s, despite mediocre eFG%s. She’s also been a consistently good offensive rebounder, which is a big part of offense in a league with lower shooting s. She’s the Fever’s only strong offensive rebounder, and her offensive rebound rate was 12 in the playoffs. Her turnovers are up in the playoffs, but she hasn’t had significant turnover problems during her career. The whole package is still a strong offensive player. She had the least efficient regular season of her career, but that was still a solid 104 ORtg and significantly better than the 99 ORtg by Douglas this season.

by Scotter on Sep 28, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs