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The Evolution of the WNBA

The WNBA crossed an important milestone this season: it was the first time the league averaged more than 1 point per possession. 

After being fairly flat for several years, the WNBA had it's most efficient offensive season.  Below is chart showing league averages for Points/100 Possessions (A measure of how efficiently teams score), Pace (The number of possessions per team each game), and Pts/G (Which is the result of efficiency multiplied by opportunity: pts/possXposs/g).  As you can see the league scoring dramatically increased in 2006, but that increase came almost entirely from the increased possessions per game due to the change to the 24 second shot clock with only a slight uptick in offensive efficiency.  This season saw a significant uptick in league efficiency as well as a uptick in pace.

Wnba__medium

Was this increase in offensive efficiency the product of having everyone in training camp before the season?  Was it the result of the shorter rosters this season?  Or was it the result of an increase in offensive talent?  I'm hoping for the latter, but what I'm really hoping for is that this was more than a one year spike. 

There's also no question that the Phoenix Mercury have had a significant effect in both boosting league efficiency and pace, and thankfully no one can say that you can't win championships playing that way in the WNBA.

Star-divide

Four Factors

In order to take a look at how the league has change in other ways, I charted the Four factors for the WNBA over the years. 

The Four Factors split the game of basketball into it's statistical components: shooting measured by effective FG% ((FGM + 0.5*3PA)/FGA), rebounding measured by what percentage of FGA are offensive rebounded, turnover rate measured by turnovers divided by possessions, and the free throw line measured by FTM/FGA (This includes how often teams get to the FT line and how well teams make their FTA).  I decided to include the assist rate, assists/FGM, in additions to the Four Factors because it's a defining trend in the league's evolution.

Wnba_four_factors_medium

Compared to the NBA over the same period, the WNBA has been fairly stable. 

Offensive rebounds and turnovers are gradually trending down, and assist rate has also trended down to the point where it's fairly close to that of the NBA.  WNBA players are getting better and better at creating their own shot, and that increase in shot creation hasn't hurt the league's offensive efficiency at all.

It's clear that the WNBA has been moving away from a college basketball type game towards a NBA style game, and I think that's good for the league.  It may no longer be the game that the fans who fled men's basketball in favor of women's basketball years ago love, but it is a game that NBA fans and basketball fans in general can embrace. 

As someone who's watched the WNBA since it's inception, it's been exciting to see so many NBA fans realize that they enjoy the current WNBA, whether it's Q McCall or Phoenix Stan or Bethlem Shoals or my favorite NBA writer and fellow Bulls fan Kelly Dwyer or any other recent convert.  That combined with the level of interaction between NBA and WNBA players seen in social media like Twitter has made me a believer that the future of the WNBA heavily rests with converting NBA fans.  It will never be a replicate of the NBA, but it's reached a point where it's similar enough with the 24 second shot clock and increased offensive efficiency that it's easier for NBA fans to simply appreciate the differences.

And if you're interested in how the NBA has changed over the last three decades look here.

1 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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Great stuff!

Do you think the decline in OReb% and ast/fgm is about a transition to smaller more skilled players and away from “bangers”?

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Oct 16, 2009 5:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

From his NBA article, in which the oreb% also declined...

“The rise of the 3-point shot also coincided with a steady decline in offensive rebounds. There’s more offensive rebounds in fastbreak situations and on shots close to the basket, the 3-pointer both devalued the marginal fastbreak opportunity and the marginal shot close to the basket.”

http://www.blogabull.com/2009/10/3/1067308/the-evolution-of-the-nba

Could something similar have happened in the WNBA?

SwishAppeal.com, women's basketball...covered SBN-style... twitter: @qmccall3

by Q McCall on Oct 16, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the 3-point shotis part of the answer, but the correlation isn't as clear as the NBA,

which has seen the rate of 3PA steadily increase over the last thirty years. It’s clear that like the NBA, there are an increasing number of posts that are 3-point shooters, which should decrease offensive rebounds. But, I don’t have a clear answer I’m comfortable with yet.

by Scotter on Oct 16, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One thing I'm finding most amazing is that there was a drastic increase in pace/ppg with the advent of the shot clock....

…without a major increase in turnovers, which might be a logical outcome of a quicker game…

Like you said, the increased pace is probably a major contributor to why I’m able to enjoy the game more now than back in the late 90s…

SwishAppeal.com, women's basketball...covered SBN-style... twitter: @qmccall3

by Q McCall on Oct 16, 2009 5:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's was something that immediately stood out to me as well. You still see some WNBA coaches

complain about how they don’t have time to run an effective halfcourt offense anymore, but the statistics render that argument moot.

What’s interesting is that as soon as the 24 second shot clock was put in, the WNBA jumped to an NBA’s pace, and again without any drop in efficiency.

In the WNBA finals the Fever’s offensive efficiency was above the NBA league average and the Mercury were above the NBA league average for the entire regular season and their playoff performance would have ranked among the top teams in the NBA last season.

by Scotter on Oct 16, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Corey Gaines

talked all year about keeping turnovers down by going even faster

His idea is that the quicker you are going the quicker you are taking the first open look then the fewer passes there are to get turned over and the less time the defense has to get set

Of course you have to have the skilled players to pull that off

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Oct 16, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The skilled players is the key.

Westhead’s two season in Denver were terrible. In his 2nd season he managed to have the least efficient offense in the NBA playing that style.

But, if you have the scorers it’s definitely a way to go and it keeps turnovers down and creates better shots.

by Scotter on Oct 16, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

talent

Westhead struggled in Denver because he had no talent to work with.

In LA, he won a championship.

by pilight on Oct 16, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Paul Ball

That’s always been the Westhead theory. Fewer actions with the ball means fewer turnovers.

by pilight on Oct 16, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Had an interesting

conversation today with someone very familiar with the Suns organization. He was pondering whether Gaines would return or if he would leave for bigger $

It’s hard to imagine him giving up on all that talent. As a coach how often do you get a chance to work with a team like that and of course he’s still very young.

But you never know, I guess

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Oct 16, 2009 7:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It sounds just to listening to his interviews that he's still learning a lot...

It might be a better move for him to spend a few years in the WNBA with a really good team to hone his ability as a coach before making the jump to a new game…

Then again, there are less successful WNBA coaches that have found paydays elsewhere…

SwishAppeal.com, women's basketball...covered SBN-style... twitter: @qmccall3

by Q McCall on Oct 16, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kurt Walker

I noticed on the Suns box score that Kurt ref’d the Suns game in Portland the other night…it wasn’t on TV but I was still a bit…sad

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Oct 16, 2009 7:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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